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#17 Florida State at #3 Clemson — Preview

It’s hard to imagine anyone outside of the state of South Carolina would’ve called Clemson a title contender this year. No offense intended to Clemson or their fans, but it would’ve been one heck of a prediction to see the Tigers sitting at #3 in the country after ten weeks. What’s even more remarkable is that Dabo Swinney’s team might actually still be underrated. Power rankings by both Sports Illustrated and ESPN put Clemson #1 in the nation. Calling that one in August would’ve been a real BOLD prediction …

Jimbo Fisher knows what it takes to coach a title contender. His Florida State Seminoles won the 2013 national title. Last year’s squad made the first ever college football playoff. This year’s team has yet to earn the respect of the national media or be seriously in the playoff discussion. That’s surprising to many FSU fans since their team is an impressive 7-1 so far. The team’s only blemish is a road loss at Georgia Tech. Even though they’re currently out of the top ten, the Seminoles know if they can run the table, they’ll be right back in title talk.

On Saturday, the two teams will meet and afterwards one of them is certainly going to be out of contention for the playoffs.

Clemson Plays Defense

Swinney’s team has been playing some exceptional defense. Of course, we have to ignore this past Saturday where North Carolina State racked up over 400 yards of offense and scored 41 points on the Tigers. Aside from that outlier, the defensive unit have been the stars of Clemson’s surprising season.

Overall, Clemson has the 5th best defense in the nation. They’ve allowed 286 rushing yards per game (14th) and and 104 yards passing per game (11th). The numbers tell a tale and the eye test backs it up. Clemson defenders are fast and nasty … the kind of defense some of the major SEC powers have been known for (Florida, Auburn, Bama).

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A Quarterback on the Rise

In his sophomore season, QB Deshaun Watson is a player on the rise. All players are expected to get better (statistically and otherwise) with more playing time, physical development, etc. But Watson is growing by leaps and bounds. He’s gone from one of the more interesting QBs in the ACC to one of the best in the country. Just like his overachieving team, not too many people saw this coming.

Watson suffered a knee injury last season that required surgery in December. So starting the season, neither he nor his coaches wanted to rush his involvement in the running game. He’s a legitimate dual threat QB, but the team was cautious of exposing him early. To boot, Clemson has a new offensive coordinator this season giving Watson a new coach and new playbook to get accustomed to.

By last week, he’d clearly hit his stride scoring six touchdowns (five passes) and leading his team over a pesky N.C. State team. Without Watson’s heroics, the Tigers magical season would likely be over.

In an era of CFB where so many QBs put up fantastic numbers is pass happy offenses in constant spread formation, Watson is a gimmick-free QB. He’s the real deal whose production is not spiked by the benefits of a wild west system. With respect to TCU and Baylor, Clemson’s offense is not the “plug and play” type where any relatively talented QB could thrive. This Tigers offense is churning because of the guy under center.

His emergence at Clemson is not unexpected for those who’ve coached him and scouted him. From Gainesville, Georgia Watson was a two sport athlete who was drawing early comparisons Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. Flattery for sure, but not unjustified. In 2012, he led the Gainesville High School team to a GA state championship. The following year they came one loss away from another trip to the state championship. He is the current owner of several state football records. And those who saw him play in person, still talk about him like a local legend.

For those at Clemson, perhaps his greatest attribute has been his loyalty. He made his commitment to Clemson at the end of his junior year. Before the end of his senior year, he was one of the most sought after prospects in the south. Many big programs gave one last big push after him — including Alabama who made him an offer. Watson didn’t waiver on the commitment he’d made to Clemson. Tiger fans everywhere should love him for that fact alone.

Watson has been on the big stage before. Earlier in the year, Clemson hosted Notre Dame on the Saturday night primetime stage. While not his best game of the year, he was effective enough and the Tigers upset the Irish. Still plenty of CFB fans don’t believe Watson or his Tigers are as good as their ranking. Saturday versus Florida State will be another big opportunity to prove the doubters wrong.

Seminoles Have a Cook in the Kitchen

Dalvin Cook’s season almost didn’t happen. The FSU running back was suspended over the summer for an off campus incident at a bar. A fellow patron, a woman, accused Cook of striking her during an argument. After a police investigation, charges were dropped and Cook was reinstated. The sophomore RB hasn’t looked back since.

Cook has been one of the best RBs in the nation this year. At times, his name has even been tossed around in the Heisman discussion (although he’s likely a long shot). Coming of the finest season for an FSU freshman RB ever, Cook’s emergence as a regular on the national highlight reels is not a big surprise.

He’s bigger than his 203 lbs would lead you to believe. He’s faster than you’d expect. Even when a defense thinks they’ve got the right formation, the right personnel, the right play — Dalvin Cook runs through it. He’s a homerun hitter averaging better than eight yards a carry. Twice this season he’s rushed for over 200 yards in a game and he’s found the endzone 12 times (11 rushing and 1 receiving TD). His 158 rushing yards per game is second best in the nation. If you don’t gameplan to stop him, Cook will eat your lunch all day.

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His FSU teammates realize Cook is a special player. “He’s going to do it all. If you give that guy time, he’s going to do incredible things,” remarks teammate and offensive lineman Wilson Bell.

That sentiment isn’t limited to the guys who block for Cook upfront. FSU Wideout, Kermit Whitfield, called Cook a “freak of nature” for his ability to play through injuries. Hamstring and ankle problems have nagged the Seminoles’ star RB throughout the season. He sat out last week’s win against Syracuse because of the ankle.

FSU will need Cook to be healthy and 100 percent when they travel to Death Valley this coming Saturday. Nothing is more capable of quieting a raucous crowd like a watching Cook torch their heralded defense. The Seminoles are going to need a couple of Cook’s big runs if they want to upset Clemson at home.

Why FSU Will Win

Dalvin Cook is the key … if he has 25 plus carries and 150 plus yards, I don’t see how Clemson can overcome that. Those numbers would indicate FSU is likely controlling the game clock and Mr. Cook is having another successful day at the office.

On defense, the Seminoles need to pressure QB Deshaun Watson into making mistakes. Hit him early and often … whether they get the sack or not … will be key to forcing the young QB into errors. If they can make him uncomfortable, FSU may be able to derail the Tigers’ attack.

Why Clemson Will Win

The home field is a big advantage here. If this game was at Bobby Bowden stadium, it’s very possible FSU would rightfully be favored. Clemson needs to make some big plays early and keep that home crowd into the game. Use the noise and chaos of Death Valley to their advantage.

On defense, they’ve got to bottle up Dalvin Cook. No small task for sure, but it can be done. Georgia Tech was able to reduce him to more mortal numbers (17 carries, 82 yards) and the end result was FSU’s lone loss on the season. There’s no doubt that Coach Swinney and his staff have been reviewing the tape of that game in preparation for this Saturday’s contest.

The BOLD Prediction

The Tigers defy the critics for another week … Clemson 21, FSU 17

 

 

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