Fri 4 Sep

Every number here gets graded.

Sports from the Basement pulls projections from more than a dozen independent forecasters, weights each one by how accurate it has actually been, and blends them into a single number for every game, player and race. Then it prices that number against the live market and shows you where the two disagree.

Every call is graded once the result is in — hit rate, closing line value and calibration, market by market, published in full. A model that is never scored is just an opinion with a decimal point.

Create a free accountRead the record first

Free includes the model’s projected line on every game. No card.

  • 12+forecast sources, weighted by measured skill
  • 9sports, plus every North American race card
  • Everypublished pick graded once it settles
  • CLVclosing line value tracked market by market

Track record

Sun 30 Aug – Fri 4 Sep · every bet rated 4 or higher
Record
186−564−2
752 settled
Hit rate
24.8%
of 750 decided
Return
−2.79%
per unit staked, flat stakes
Worst day
−45.29%
Thu 3 Sep, 114 bets
Full record
Best day, last 30+106.52%Tue 1 Sep · 58−126 · 184 bets
Last 30 days−2.79%752 bets · 24.8% hit · 5.2% to break even

Tue 1 Sep, graded

Every bet of that day, rated 4 or higher, unedited
RatingMatchBetPriceResult
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red SoxMLBIsiah Kiner-Falefa U 0.5Batter Singles−105won
New York Mets at Tampa Bay RaysMLBSean Manaea U 17.5Pitcher Outs+140won
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota TwinsMLBAndrew Morris O 0.5Pitcher Earned Runs Allowed+115won
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLBAngel Genao U 0.5Batter Singles−121won
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLBGavin Williams U 17.5Pitcher Outs−106lost
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLBSpencer Miles O 3.5Pitcher Outs+185lost
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLBSpencer Miles O 0.5Pitcher Earned Runs Allowed+155lost
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLBLogan Webb U 17.5Pitcher Outs+132won
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati RedsMLBRandy Vásquez O 14.5Pitcher Outs+128lost
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles DodgersMLBAlex Call U 0.5Batter Singles−160won
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles DodgersMLBMichael McGreevy O 15.5Pitcher Outs+140lost
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona DiamondbacksMLBEduardo Rodriguez U 17.5Pitcher Outs+126won

The 12 highest-rated of 184. Nothing is removed — the whole day is on the record page, win and loss alike.

Today’s board

live odds · 7 Soccer games · public market dataodds 5h old
Fri 3:00 PMIpswich+0.5+1253.5+4000Liverpool−0.5−165—−1652Draw——+333—finalFri 3:00 PMReal Betis+1.5−1603.5+5001Real Madrid−1.5+115—−2180Draw——+400—finalFri 2:45 PMGenoa+0.5+1152.5+4801Como−0.5−155—−1524Draw——+280—final

Sources earn their weight.

No source is trusted on reputation. Each one is scored against real outcomes, market by market, and a forecaster that cannot beat the category average is dropped to zero weight rather than quietly averaged in. Agreement between sources is not treated as evidence — five forecasters can be wrong together.

Probabilities are built from measured error rather than assumption, and the uncertainty on a market is sized from how far its projections actually land from the result.

A model for this track, on this surface.

Every race is modelled on the history of that track and that surface — a dirt sprint is not scored on turf routes run somewhere else. The model learns finish order directly, ranking a field rather than rating horses in isolation, and reads form as it stood on race day.

Exotics are priced off the whole field, using the long-established correction that a horse’s chance of running second is not simply its chance of winning. Skipping that step is what makes naive exotic prices look better than they are.

What you get free

The model’s projected score, spread and total on every game, live odds from the books we cover, the day’s live tote prices on every race, and the entire graded record. Permanently, and not as a trial.

What we never claim

No promised return, no edge over the market, no win rate. Those are the claims that draw regulatory attention, and they are the ones you would have to keep proving every month. The measurement is the product.

How to check it

Every settled bet is on the record page with the price it was graded at, win and loss alike. Read it before you decide whether the forecasts are worth anything, and read the method before you read the price.