Sun 27 Sep
Sports from the Basement pulls projections from more than a dozen independent forecasters, weights each one by how accurate it has actually been, and blends them into a single number for every game, player and race. Then it prices that number against the live market and shows you where the two disagree.
Every call is graded once the result is in — hit rate, calibration and where the model is worst, market by market, published in full. A model that is never scored is just an opinion with a decimal point.
Free includes the model’s projected line on every game. No card.
| Rating | Match | Bet | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati RedsMLB | Brice Turang U 0.5Batter Singles | +103 | won | |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White SoxMLB | Chicago White Sox −1.5Run Line (Point Spread) | +163 | lost | |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Nick Loftin U 0.5Batter Hits | +145 | lost | |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Brett Bateman U 1.5Batter Hits | −121 | won | |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Nick Loftin U 0.5Batter Singles | −131 | lost | |
| Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Lazaro Montes U 0.5Batter Hits | +110 | won | |
| Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Lazaro Montes U 0.5Batter Runs | −235 | won | |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles DodgersMLB | Tyler Glasnow U 17.5Pitcher Outs | +127 | lost | |
| New York Yankees at San Diego PadresMLB | San Diego Padres −1.5Run Line (Point Spread) | +171 | lost | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado RockiesMLB | Ramón Urías U 0.5Batter Hits | +160 | won | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado RockiesMLB | José Fermín U 1.5Batter Hits | −261 | won | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado RockiesMLB | Ramón Urías U 1.5Batter Total Bases | −175 | won |
The day’s 12 highest-rated bets, at the Consensus price. Nothing is removed — every graded bet is on the record page, win and loss alike.
No source is trusted on reputation. Each is scored against real outcomes, market by market, and one that cannot beat the category average is dropped to zero weight rather than quietly averaged in. Agreement is not evidence — five forecasters can be wrong together.
Probabilities are built from measured error: the uncertainty on a market is sized from how far its projections actually land from the result.
Every race is modelled on the history of that track and surface — a dirt sprint is not scored on turf routes run somewhere else. The model learns finish order directly, ranking a field rather than rating horses in isolation, and reads form as it stood on race day.
Exotics are priced off the whole field, correcting for the fact that a horse’s chance of running second is not simply its chance of winning — skipping that step is what makes naive exotic prices look better than they are.
The model’s projected score, spread and total on every game, live odds from the books we cover, live tote prices on every race, and the entire graded record. Permanently, not as a trial.
No promised return, no edge over the market, no win rate. Those are the claims that draw regulators, and the ones you would have to keep proving every month. The measurement is the product.
Every settled bet is on the record page with the price it was graded at, win and loss alike. Read it before you decide the forecasts are worth anything, and read the method before you read the price.
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