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#12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor — Preview

When the final college football playoff bracket is set, a major conference is getting left out. It’s just simple math … 4 playoff spots and 5 major conferences. And that doesn’t take into account a team like Notre Dame messing things up. The Big 12 knows that disappointment all too well. Last year, the highest ranked conference team was Baylor finishing at #5. As the standings are at this point, the Big 12 is at risk of history repeating itself.

Saturday’s contest between Oklahoma and Baylor will likely keep the victor in contention and insure the loser ends up on the outside looking in. The Baylor Bears come in undefeated but without their star QB Seth Russell, who was lost for the season with a neck injury. The Oklahoma Sooners enter Saturday’s game with a single loss on their resume.

The Sooners Transfer QB

Baker Mayfield has been a hot commodity since he first stepped on a collegiate football field. He was an unlikely star when his career started at Texas Tech. A walk on, Mayfield was just competing for a roster spot when he won the starting QB job as a true freshman in 2013. From there Mayfield led Tech to a 5-0 record before a knee injury sidelined him. He returned for the final three games of the season and threw for another 600 yards and four touchdowns. It was enough to earn him the Big 12 Freshman of the Year award. But it wasn’t enough to earn him the starting job the following season.

When his coach announced they would open up the QB competition in the spring, Mayfield didn’t feel he had respect he had earned and sought a transfer. Under NCAA rules, because he was a non-scholarship player, Tech could have granted him an exception and allowed his transfer to Oklahoma to go through without costing him a year of eligibility. However, Tech initially refused to allow Mayfield to transfer to a conference rival. 

In the end, Mayfield sat out a year and lost a year of eligibility. But the now junior QB is making up for lost time. He’s helped the Sooners to their 8-1 record while throwing for 28 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He’s energized an offense that looked lackluster at times last season as Oklahoma sputtered to an 8-5 record. He is a legitimate Heisman trophy candidate … especially if the Sooners can win their last three games.

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He did get a bit of revenge earlier in the season as Oklahoma defeated Texas Tech 63-27 with Mayfield throwing for two touchdowns. When asked to comment if there was still bad blood between him Tech, “No conflict. I feel like I’ve moved on,” he said.

The Freshman Steps Up

Baylor has a great tradition of QBs … especially over the past decade plus. Those QBs include Robert Griffin III, and Bryce Petty. This year’s starter, Seth Russell, was on a tear this season. He’d thrown for over 2,000 yards and 29 touchdowns before suffering a season ending neck injury on October 24th. Head coach Art Briles looked down his bench at a freshman to take the reins.

“Someone has got to step up,” Stidham told his old high school coach during the bye week, “so it might as well be me.”

The 6-3, 210 lbs QB from Stephenville, Texas is ahead of schedule for sure. He’s the guy Baylor planned to turn to in 2017 and beyond (note Russell is a junior). But Art Briles expressed confidence in his young QB. “We view him as a ready quarterback with an old soul.”

Stidham and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield have an unusual connection. At one point, both were attached Texas Tech. Stidham didn’t actually enroll but did commit at one point to Tech. And his decision to switch to Baylor was not taken too kindly by some of the die hard Tech fans.

“I had threatening phone calls to my house,” Stidham said. “Threatening letters. That’s hard for an 18-year-old kid to deal with but I tried to stay away from it, especially on Twitter because a lot of things were being said on Twitter. Friends would be saying, “hey, did you see what this guys said about you.” The best thing was just to stay away from it and I think it has definitely helped me come into this situation now to handle it and not get too high or low. Just kind of take it.”

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But the young QB is putting all that behind him and after a successful first game against Kansas State, he’s preparing for his first big challenge. His confidence is riding high after throwing for 419 yards and 3 touchdowns in his college debut. While this will be the Sooners first time facing Stidham, he’s not a complete stranger to Stoops. The Sooners head coach recruiting the five-star rated Stidham, just like so many other programs, as he was completing his HS career.

“Everyone knew that coming out of high school,” Stoops said. “He’s got an excellent arm.”

Stoops and the rest of the Sooners will be hoping NOT to see too much of that excellent arm this Saturday.

Why Oklahoma Will Win

Since their embarrassing loss to Texas on October 10, Oklahoma has been impressive. Over the next four games, they’ve outscored opponents 232 to 50. They are not the same team they were even before the Texas game when they were squeaking in several games. In many ways, the Sooners look like the more complete team. In order to pull off the upset in Waco, they’ll need a complete game (all three phases – offense, defense, and special teams). Assuming they can only slow down Baylor, nobody has stopped that offense yet, they’ll need a solid performance from Mayfield and the offense. It’s likely to take 40 or more points to beat Baylor.

Why Baylor Will Win

Art Briles has a team on a mission. They control they’re own desitny as if they can win out, it will be very difficult (impossible?) for the College Football Playoff Committee to deny them a spot in final bracket.  That focus will be tested this week against Oklahoma.

Baylor wins with offense. Period. They have one of the most prolific offenses in the country and possibly in NCAA history. What Russell did to make it work is the same thing Stidham now needs to do — make the right reads. The offense scheme will give him multiple receiver options on each play and the Sooners can take away one or two but not them all. The key to Baylor’s offense continuing to click under the freshman QB is for him to make the right reads.

The BOLD PredictionThis could be as good a game as you’ll see any upcoming conference championship. I like Baylor in a close, high scoring matchup. Baylor 42, Oklahoma 40

 

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