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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 19, 2017

April 19, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Mugrosito 4.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Nuclear Option 1.80 1.8 3-1
6 6 Ten City 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Abby Brilliant 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Cutler 12.00 5 9-1 Scr
1 1 Breakin Daylight 4.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Bullet Bandit 20.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Taurus C 20.00 8.5 16-1
10 9 Prairie’s Gift 15.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Miguel 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 5 Crooked as Can Be 1.80 1 2-1
9 8 Carouse 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Rakeitin 12.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Turn to Include 10.00 4 8-1
7 6 Lotto Cat 4.00 4.5 9-1
5 4 War Point 12.00 6 11-1
1 1 Spinning for Home 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Tattaglia 10.00 7.3 14-1 Scr
3 3 Finito 20.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 5 Brooks House 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Miss Shawhan 10.00 2.8 5-1
1 3 No Fault 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 6 Qualkris 6.00 4.5 9-1 Scr
1A 5 Upstage 3.50 4.5 9-1 Scr
2 1 Fuerza 2.50 7 13-1
10 11 Lela’s Gift 20.00 7.5 14-1 Scr
4 4 Forevermore 12.00 7.8 15-1
9 8 Angels Seven (IRE) 6.00 7.8 15-1
11 12 Fairybrook 5.00 8.8 17-1 Scr
7 6 Out of My Way 15.00 11 21-1
8 7 Sly Ranger 10.00 11.3 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 Vital 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Chateau 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Baytown Lex 3.00 3 6-1
10 9 Awesome Eddie 12.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Just Like Richie 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Rhyder Time 30.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Sun Dress 20.00 7.5 14-1 Scr
3 3 Orbatron 5.00 7.8 15-1
9 8 Amberspatriot 3.00 8 15-1
4 4 Reaganize 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 Flatter Up 4.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Spellker 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Texas Music 6.00 4 8-1
12 12 Princess Lu Lu 10.00 4 8-1
2 2 Pastime 12.00 6 11-1
4 4 Marina’s Legacy 6.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Jay Wow 50.00 8 15-1
1 1 Priss 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Jersey Heist 5.00 9 17-1
11 11 On Probation 20.00 9.3 17-1
9 9 Heartspoke 12.00 9.5 18-1
14 14 Hippolyte 20.00 12 23-1 Scr
8 8 Lola’s the One 8.00 12 23-1
13 13 Tickety Boo 30.00 13 25-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Kirby’s Penny 2.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Drop Dead Red 10.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Dee Dee Bertie 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Audrey’s Double 5.00 4 8-1
2 2 Princess Drossie 5.00 5 9-1
6 6 Gurlin 5.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Racey Reecey 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
12 12 Conquest Typhoon 6.00 1.8 3-1
6 5 Turbo Street (AUS) 5.00 2 4-1
11 11 Security Risk 5.00 4 8-1
4 3 Brass Compass 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Special Ops 10.00 5 9-1
13 13 Weekend Express 12.00 6.8 13-1 Scr
9 9 Tale of Fancy 6.00 8.3 16-1
1A 14 Niigon’s Edge 15.00 8.3 16-1 Scr
10 10 Dragon Bay 10.00 8.5 16-1
5 4 High Noon Rider 15.00 8.8 17-1
2 1 Arties Silver Mine 6.00 9.5 18-1
7 6 Surgical Strike 6.00 10.5 20-1
3 2 Some in Tieme (BRZ) 20.00 13.3 25-1
1 8 Nipigon 15.00 13.8 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Netela 8.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Shystermeister 5.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Ezra 6.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Swordfish 4.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Fat Daddy 3.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 Vagabond Prince 20.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 K L S Forty Three 5.00 7 13-1
2 2 Proudly High 10.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Agentmulder 12.00 9 17-1
7 7 Shoe Show King 10.00 9.3 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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