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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 20, 2017

April 20, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Soil 3.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Stormfield 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Unmiztaken Legend 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Jemrose 3.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Tiz Gig Gee 4.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Maleficent Queen 8.00 6 11-1
2 2 Perfect Prize 8.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 6 Ultima D 1.40 1.8 3-1
4 3 Anna Kate 12.00 2.5 5-1
2 1 Buy Sell Hold 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Classy Music 3.00 4.3 8-1
7 5 Dialin 15.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Screamin Dixie 12.00 6 11-1 Scr
3 2 Vida Leva Eu 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Boom Pow Pow 10.00 7.3 14-1 Scr
9 7 Candy Lou 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Kitzys Rocket 10.00 2.5 5-1
9 7 Niigon’s Eclipse 15.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Havana Dream 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Shaan (IRE) 4.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Puca 2.00 5 9-1
6 6 Hone In 30.00 6 11-1 Scr
5 5 Sassy Little Lila 1.80 6.3 12-1 Scr
8 6 Princess Princess 12.00 6.8 13-1
7 5 You Cheated 30.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 She Stays Rollin 1.40 1 2-1
8 8 Morgan’s David 20.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Tiz B B N 15.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 True Dream 3.50 4.5 9-1
1 1 Sun Dress 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Chelada 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Brittany’s Beauty 30.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Waki Patriot 3.00 8 15-1
10 10 Tapit At Ann 12.00 8 15-1
4 4 Cure the Thirst 20.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Keep Talking 4.50 3.5 7-1
1A 15 Rapa Iti 50.00 4.3 8-1 Scr
1 1 Yes Mon 50.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Perfect Comic 50.00 6 11-1
9 9 Seven Forty Seven 15.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Transatlantic Kiss 6.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Johnny Obvious 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Ancient Warfare 6.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Bound for Nowhere 5.00 8.5 16-1
11 11 Kiss the Toad 3.00 9.3 17-1
13 13 Dawn Raider 15.00 9.5 18-1 Scr
3 3 Caribou Club 5.00 10.5 20-1
4 4 Oso Ready 20.00 11.3 21-1
7 7 On the Lam 12.00 12.5 24-1
14 14 Kidnap 8.00 13 25-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Fifth Title 12.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 One River Place 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Upstage 12.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Vandelay 6.00 4 8-1 Scr
3 3 Faction Cat 3.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Northern 6.00 5 9-1
9 8 Coal Front 3.50 5.8 11-1
1 1 Class Won 8.00 8.3 16-1
8 7 American Ride 15.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Scatter Gun 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 Crooked Stick 12.00 2.8 5-1 Scr
7 6 Insta Erma 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Conquest Babayaga 4.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Fleet Bertie 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 La Majestique 30.00 5 9-1
11 10 Queen Caroline 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Theophilia 15.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Rachel Wall 8.00 8.3 16-1
9 8 Queenofthepalace (NZ) 15.00 8.5 16-1
8 7 Lira 5.00 9.5 18-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Pablo Del Monte 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Go Vo 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Circle Unbroken 8.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Mellow Fellow 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Malbec 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Ray’swarrior 2.00 5 9-1
3 3 Fuhrious Warrior 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Youngest Daughter 8.00 3 6-1
11 11 Suburb 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Dynamic War 30.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Cha Cha Magic 15.00 5 9-1
15 15 La Manta Gris 8.00 5.8 11-1 Scr
14 14 Indigirka 20.00 6.5 12-1 Scr
12 12 How (IRE) 4.50 6.8 13-1
10 10 Bourgeois 12.00 7 13-1
7 7 Pounds to Pennies 4.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Kahrumana 2.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Sweet Tatum 15.00 10 19-1
1 1 Ladies’ Privilege 15.00 12 23-1
6 6 Perfect Fox 50.00 12.5 24-1
5 5 Bold Breanna 30.00 13.8 26-1
13 13 Temple of Grace 50.00 15 28-1 Scr

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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