June 23, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Five Star Nap | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jammin Gemi | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Candrasa | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Buy Low Sell High | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Northern Michigan | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Maximum Edge | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Deadly Ruler | 0.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Gipper | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hold the Door | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Because It’s Time | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | British Humor | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bookman | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | K J’s Nobility | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Chipit | 0.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Patriotic American | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rank | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Out of the Trappe | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Utmost Intensity | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Galatasaray | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Driven by Desire | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Downwind | 0.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Dancing | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Dutch Treat | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Lil Vie | 0.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ashy Taty | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Special Vintage | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pure Praise | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Malibu Saint | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Data Star | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Smokin Hot Momma | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Touchdown Trojans | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Unprovoked | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Accuse | 0.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Mauk’s Tuff | 0.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | High Tech | 0.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | U S Citizen | 0.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | Mellow Fellow | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Shock Leader | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Sardonic Joe | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Medal of Courage | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sportscaster | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Awesome Thought | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Royal Blessing | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gabriel’s Cat | 0.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Political Justice | 0.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Como Se Llama | 0.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | True Ten | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiznow R J | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Smoking Romance | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twirling Cinnamon | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frost Or Frippery | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Carmenere | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Merilore | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Walking the Kitten | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Smelly Cat | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Ursula Andress (BRZ) | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Baetykaty | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Be Proud | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Westminister Road | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Zeta Zody | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Casses Story | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Harmac | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heartwood | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Singing Bullet | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Warrior’s Passion | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hollow Point | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Transatlantic Kiss | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Totality | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr Sheen | 0.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Fairybrook | 0.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Shack Amore | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Isotope | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Indian Trick | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Barstool Warrior | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Chiquitita | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chasing the Buck | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Chargers Miss | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mineshaft Diva | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.