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Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 16, 2017

September 16, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 Mystique Artiste 4.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Cream of the Crop 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Lucky in Life 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Shoeluv Is Trueluv 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Sturn Donna 5.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Disrespectful 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Splashs Showbiz 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 City of Justice 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 5 Dr. Clark 8.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Shogood 5.00 2.7 5-1 Scr
3 3 Superstar Leo 3.00 2.9 5-1 Scr
4 4 Flashdance Road 12.00 4.4 8-1 Scr
9 9 Armando’s Star 30.00 4.7 9-1 Scr
2 2 Caitlins Road 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 4 Go Oshie Go 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 8 Mayor Byrne Rocks 3.50 2.4 5-1
9 9 Granites Peak 2.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Go Bonnie Go 10.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Quick Study 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Classy Student 15.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Silver Kitty 4.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Sunset Gables 6.00 7.1 14-1
5 5 Fahionably Late 20.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Chosen Facts 15.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Jeff Lynn Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 4 Goneghost 2.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Mongol Bull 12.00 3.3 6-1 Scr
3 2 Good Bye Greg 1.60 3.6 7-1
6 6 Shogood 5.00 4.7 9-1 Scr
8 5 St. Louie Guy 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 1 Reigning Catfish 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Gorgeous George 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Armando’s Star 30.00 7.7 15-1 Scr
5 5 Richiesinthehouse 10.00 8.3 16-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Boom Box 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Franklin County 20.00 3.7 7-1
9 7 Carson Kan 3.50 4.6 9-1
7 7 Checkmate Charlie 12.00 5.3 10-1 Scr
8 6 Kyzan 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Bushrod 4.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Saidtomyself 5.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Gray Mensch 6.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Monday Pirate 20.00 7.3 14-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Richard Scherer Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 4 Puntsville 1.80 2.3 4-1
2 2 Luvin Bullies 8.00 2.4 5-1 Scr
4 3 Diadura 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Thoughtless 2.50 3.7 7-1
8 6 Black Angel 5.00 5.3 10-1
7 5 Shackin Up 15.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Darlin Rosie 30.00 5.9 11-1 Scr
3 2 Delicate Lady 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 3 A J’s Posse 5.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Copper Munn 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Valid Storm 2.00 4 8-1 Scr
5 4 Commander’s Castle 4.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Stefan O’Eishen 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Devil Hunt 20.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Coach Nar 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Hiparko 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Always a Catch 8.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Slip and Drive 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Alpha Kitalpha 2.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Mendota 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Chas the Man 2.50 5.4 10-1
9 9 Fort Dixie 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Aqtaar 15.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Dancing Rock 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Chang’s Secret 20.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 All Hansens Ondeck 6.00 2.7 5-1 Scr
1 1 Judge N Ruler 3.50 2.9 5-1 Scr
9 6 Amaroq 12.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Gentleman Richie 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 4 Bowknot Billy 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Another Richie 10.00 5.6 11-1 Scr
10 7 Way 3.00 7 13-1
7 5 Cairn 4.50 7.3 14-1
5 3 High Moon 10.00 7.4 14-1
3 2 Rio Seco 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 7 Act of Heroism 1.60 2.3 4-1
4 4 Firespike 5.00 3.9 7-1 Scr
9 8 Dad Are We Here 4.50 4.1 8-1
7 6 Aim to Tease 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Bel Air Bullet 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Solar Flair 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Russian Partisan 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Greeley’s Special 30.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Husky Clipper 8.00 7.4 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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