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Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 22, 2017

September 22, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 5 Costly King 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Talent and Grace 15.00 2.8 5-1 Scr
9 6 Disorderly Conduct 1.80 3.3 6-1
5 3 Chu Chu Johnnie 30.00 4.5 9-1
3 2 Stranglehold 4.50 5.3 10-1
1 1 Offlee Fun 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 4 Oltre’ Oro 5.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Thats It Imleaving 12.00 7.8 15-1 Scr
4 4 Magic Command 8.00 8 15-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Savage Battle 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Grey Mask 12.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Russell Cave 4.50 3 6-1
3 3 Last Spring 5.00 4 8-1
5 5 Mister Fudge 1.80 5 9-1
6 6 Sync O’Paddy 15.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 2 Back At the Ranch 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Betruetoyourschool 10.00 3.5 7-1 Scr
4 3 Celtic Gold 4.50 3.8 7-1
6 5 Larissa’s Love 8.00 4 8-1
8 7 High Heel Lady 6.00 5 9-1
2 1 R U Forreal 5.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Supercede 4.00 6.5 12-1
5 4 Dundalk Bay 6.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 7 Back Page Star 2.00 1 2-1
5 4 Oh So Terrible 8.00 3 6-1
4 3 Brisson 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Something Kinky 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Cause Ioya 4.50 4.5 9-1
7 6 Holy Cookie 8.00 6.5 12-1
3 2 Brewmistress 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Sark Lady 15.00 7.8 15-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
10 10 Mr Dewey 5.00 2.8 5-1 Scr
11 8 Cortege 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Cov 20.00 3.3 6-1 Scr
9 7 Moonlight Mischief 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Golden Gift 20.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Intrepid Humor 6.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 He’s Cheeky 2.50 6.3 12-1
4 4 Strict Observance 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 5 Red Corvette 6.00 8.3 16-1
8 6 Spanish Justice 12.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Mas Mischief 12.00 10.5 20-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Royal Change 4.00 1.5 3-1 Scr
5 4 Toll Guard 3.50 2 4-1
1 1 American Sparrow 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Volgograd 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 7 Boogie Man 4.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 Prospect Point 30.00 6 11-1 Scr
2 2 Hannity 30.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Bulldog of Bergen 15.00 7.8 15-1
6 5 Savemethelastdance 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 3 White Pass 3.50 1.5 3-1
6 4 Sturn Donna 2.00 3.3 6-1
8 5 Eva Destruction 30.00 3.8 7-1
2 1 Cuddle Me 15.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Cruzin Copper 15.00 5 9-1 Scr
3 2 Ms. Big Cash 2.50 5.8 11-1
1 1 Bold Drama 30.00 6.5 12-1 Scr
9 6 Gritty Kitty 4.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Lucy Lucy Lucy 20.00 7.8 15-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 9 Choteau 20.00 3 6-1 Scr
11 10 Summertime Gal 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Nifty Nellie 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Silver Plume 30.00 4 8-1
6 6 Mongolian Time 3.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Jiffy Jenni 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Silvera 3.50 6.5 12-1
2 2 Maria 15.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Greeley’s Demon 5.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Dial the Doctor 8.00 8.8 17-1
10 9 La Activa 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 6 She’s Fine Tuned 3.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Road to Zanzibar 4.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Sidneyscent 30.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Ice Princess Emily 30.00 5 9-1
11 11 Altered Mind 1.80 5.5 10-1
2 2 Icalledyoubyname 30.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Ain’t That Funny 12.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Ally Song 4.50 7 13-1
3 3 Mi Hermanita 20.00 9 17-1
5 5 Zosia 30.00 9.5 18-1
1 1 Glimmer of Light 30.00 10.8 20-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 2 Kantastic 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Lion Love 12.00 2.8 5-1 Scr
9 6 I Call 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 3 Scoreearlyandoften 4.00 4.3 8-1
10 7 Kuringai 12.00 4.5 9-1
6 4 Binary Bourbon 3.50 5.5 10-1
1 1 Bearing Secrets 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Helen Hayes 8.00 7.5 14-1 Scr
7 7 Callmewhatever 10.00 8.5 16-1 Scr
8 5 Manhattan’s Angel 20.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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