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Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 23, 2017

September 23, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 6 Church Road 3.50 1.3 2-1
2 1 Dandy Gal 4.00 3 6-1
1 1 Can She Scoot 8.00 3 6-1 Scr
5 3 Case Cracker 1.50 4 8-1
6 4 Flin Flon 20.00 5 9-1
3 3 Three Cat Rules 15.00 6.3 12-1 Scr
7 5 Meadow Mystique 8.00 6.3 12-1
4 2 Nook 8.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 5 Singingintheheat 5.00 2 4-1
9 9 Smoke ‘n’ Gloat 5.00 2.3 4-1 Scr
3 2 Wagon Boss 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Devileye 4.50 5 9-1 Scr
5 4 Flashdance Road 15.00 5 9-1
8 7 Half of Manhattan 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 3 Voodoo Spell 6.00 6.8 13-1
7 6 Nun the Less 4.00 7 13-1
1 1 Cashel Rock 20.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Miss Blue Dot 10.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Fashion’s Touch 5.00 3 6-1
1 1 Scarlet Bow 12.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Strollin the Bayou 3.00 4 8-1
10 10 More Monique 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Helen Hayes 3.50 5.8 11-1
8 8 Ava Atticus 8.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Take Wing 6.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Don’t Hold Queens 30.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Dancing Nora 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 6 Roar of the Lion 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Divine Holiday 8.00 2.3 4-1 Scr
3 2 Jax Heritage 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 King of the Score 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 3 Supermans Cape 6.00 5.3 10-1
11 8 Suspenders 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Sacred Legacy 15.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Distracted 6.00 7.8 15-1 Scr
8 8 Hart Hills Road 8.00 7.8 15-1 Scr
7 5 Mas Mischief 4.50 8.8 17-1
10 7 Rio Seco 30.00 10.3 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 Wake Up Joe 6.00 2 4-1 Scr
5 5 Pablo Del Monte 4.00 2 4-1
8 7 Wildwood Dancer 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Bajan Rhythm 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Midnight Blue Note 3.50 5.5 10-1
3 3 I Forgot It’s Name 20.00 5.8 11-1
13 11 Iter 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Unscathed 5.00 8.3 16-1
9 8 Franklin County 30.00 9.3 17-1
12 10 Bushrod 8.00 9.8 18-1
6 6 Saidtomyself 30.00 10.3 19-1
10 10 I Shod the Sheriff 10.00 11.5 22-1 Scr
11 9 Welovecandy 30.00 12 23-1
14 14 If You Build It 15.00 13 25-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Les Ahrens Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Chip Leader 8.00 1.8 3-1 Scr
1 1 Applicator 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 4 Coco Mon 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 2 Oak Brook 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 5 Kasaqui (ARG) 1.20 4.8 9-1
9 9 Spring Up 10.00 5 9-1 Scr
2 2 Christian C 12.00 7.3 14-1 Scr
7 7 Imposing Will 30.00 8.5 16-1 Scr
5 3 Cammack 10.00 9 17-1
10 6 Crewman 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 9 Channel Won 15.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Milliner 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Andreas 12.00 3 6-1
3 3 Don’task Don’ttell 3.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Rock Can Tour 4.50 5.5 10-1
1 1 Thunder Down Under 3.50 5.8 11-1
2 2 Crown Moment 30.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Drayke’s Channel 8.00 8 15-1
5 5 Travel West 20.00 8 15-1
7 7 Lovingrdsimmar 30.00 10.3 19-1
6 6 The Shoe 30.00 10.5 20-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Steve Morgan Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Seeking Treasure 15.00 2.1 4-1 Scr
8 8 Sweetbaby 30.00 3.3 6-1 Scr
10 7 Prado’s Sweet Ride 2.50 3.3 6-1
11 8 One Last Shot 30.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Lovely Loyree 3.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Paint the Corners 30.00 7 13-1
5 4 Some Say So 30.00 7.3 14-1
13 9 America Mon Amie 12.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Daddy’s Boo 5.00 9.3 17-1
3 3 Stormin Elle 20.00 9.3 17-1
9 9 Felt in Pocket 30.00 9.8 18-1 Scr
6 5 Shelbysmile 4.50 9.8 18-1
12 12 Inconclusive 30.00 11.8 22-1 Scr
14 10 Disqualified 50.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
11 11 Jolee 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Applesolutely True 5.00 2 4-1
12 12 Royalty Princess 15.00 4.5 9-1
13 13 Cooper’s Keeper 20.00 5.8 11-1 Scr
4 4 Goddess of Kip 4.50 6.3 12-1
9 9 Tannah’blu 6.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Kalispell 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Chlobee 15.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Pura Lica 12.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Mallory’s Channel 8.00 9.8 18-1
6 6 Americanperfection 20.00 10.8 20-1
7 7 Curlinup 6.00 11 21-1
8 8 Chica Bonita 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Return of the Rock 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 A J’s Posse 12.00 3.3 6-1
12 11 Changn Fivehundred 5.00 3.5 7-1
13 13 Alabama Son 12.00 3.5 7-1 Scr
8 8 Kit Check 6.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Holy Brass 30.00 7 13-1
1 1 Solanair 12.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Another Richie 12.00 7.8 15-1 Scr
14 14 As You Do 10.00 8.3 16-1 Scr
7 7 Purr’s Along 12.00 9.8 18-1
9 9 Oscarific 2.50 10 19-1
6 6 Lord Turnem 12.00 11 21-1
4 4 Ours Again 10.00 11.8 22-1
10 10 Chas Tom 30.00 12.5 24-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Giant Mongolian 2.50 1 2-1 Scr
10 9 Call Me Courageous 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Je Suis Belle 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Atruevision 30.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Reminisce 20.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Atlantic Gulch 8.00 7.5 14-1
9 8 Dancing High 30.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Kara’s Angel 20.00 7.5 14-1
11 10 Turned Back Twice 15.00 8.5 16-1
8 7 Octacato 6.00 9 17-1
6 5 Hide and Street 3.00 9.5 18-1
12 11 Hurraca 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
11 9 Summer Sweet 2.50 1.8 3-1
5 4 Soul Singer 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Whisper Inthe Wind 30.00 3.8 7-1
13 13 She’s Ventastic 10.00 5 9-1 Scr
10 8 Blame T J 6.00 5.3 10-1
14 14 Glowing Gracie 20.00 6.5 12-1 Scr
1 1 Elusive Ryder 6.00 7.3 14-1
12 10 Tizdian 30.00 8.8 17-1
6 5 Classy Woman 20.00 9.3 17-1
4 4 Staria Peach 12.00 9.8 18-1 Scr
3 3 Sea Diva 6.00 10 19-1
7 6 Flash N Go 8.00 10 19-1
8 7 Sugarsugarsugar 8.00 11.3 21-1
9 9 Majestic Meadow 30.00 13.8 26-1 Scr

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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