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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 14, 2017

October 14, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Perplexed 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Small Town Hero 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Noshackleshere 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Hurricane Force 4.50 4.5 9-1
7 7 Perfect Movement 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Hugh B. 6.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Cairn 5.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Dos Cuernos 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 8 Lightning Dove 3.00 1 2-1
8 7 Play the Break 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Shea’s Cool 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Jokasa 5.00 4.3 8-1 Scr
5 4 Cause You Can 5.00 4.8 9-1
4 3 Already Packed 5.00 5.3 10-1
7 6 Super Wonderful 6.00 6.8 13-1
6 5 Ordinary Love 12.00 8 15-1
2 2 Quiet Prediction 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Miss Blue Dot 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Tiger Lisa 6.00 3.3 6-1
14 14 Jonimarie 15.00 4 8-1 Scr
9 9 Binary Bourbon 3.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Radar Vision 10.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Ashy Taty 20.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Pastiche 20.00 7.8 15-1
16 16 My Dark Secret 15.00 8 15-1 Scr
12 12 Bunny Boss 10.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Awesome Day 6.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Lonely Petunia 5.00 11 21-1
15 15 Betty’s Irish Jig 20.00 11 21-1 Scr
13 13 Just Like Jill 15.00 12 23-1 Scr
6 6 Beach Road 15.00 12.3 23-1
3 3 Alteration 15.00 14.3 27-1
7 7 Cipherin’ Sue 15.00 14.8 28-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Musical America 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Crackin Jon 5.00 3 6-1
8 8 Bluegrass Gem 20.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Roskilde 6.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Conquest Wildcat 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Johnny Obvious 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Outrun the Posse 3.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Crawford 3.50 7.3 14-1
9 9 Ceejay’s Mister 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 9 Hollow Point 3.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Belgian 12.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Takeoff 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 Morocco 3.50 4.3 8-1
5 5 Oxford Lane 8.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Alittlevodka 50.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Space Mountain 5.00 6 11-1
3 3 Mambo At the Gym 8.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Flash Harry 8.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 D C Nine 15.00 9 17-1
6 6 Tobias 30.00 10.8 20-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 8 Royal Creed 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Iona Mobe 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Twin Farms 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Simsbury 12.00 5 9-1
3 3 Lighthawk 8.00 6.5 12-1
13 13 Demolition 15.00 7 13-1 Scr
5 5 Maximize 6.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Loup 20.00 8 15-1
15 15 Rigged 12.00 8.3 16-1 Scr
6 6 Ox Bro 10.00 9 17-1
7 7 Kilroy Was Here 4.00 9.5 18-1
2 2 King of Candy 15.00 11.3 21-1
14 14 Greeley Can Win 12.00 11.5 22-1 Scr
10 10 Sargeant Drive 12.00 12.5 24-1
12 12 Mustang Cat 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Bern’ James Bern 12.00 2.8 5-1 Scr
6 4 High Noon Rider 10.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Trust Factor 8.00 4.3 8-1
11 9 The Bull (AUS) 15.00 4.5 9-1
9 7 Parlor 4.00 5.3 10-1
8 6 Western Elegance 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Bondurant 3.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Airoforce 6.00 7.8 15-1 Scr
7 5 Revved Up 4.00 8 15-1
10 8 Fish Trappe Road 20.00 8.5 16-1
3 2 Gliding Alone 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
11 11 Delphinia 10.00 2.8 5-1 Scr
4 4 Auntjenn 4.00 2.8 5-1
9 7 Too Much Tip 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Nineteenth Street 15.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Cara Blythe 8.00 6 11-1
3 3 Mythical Tale 6.00 6.3 12-1
12 12 Promises Broken 15.00 6.8 13-1 Scr
14 8 Minnie Blip 5.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Perfect Wife 10.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Girls Know Best 15.00 10.3 19-1 Scr
8 8 China Grove 12.00 10.5 20-1 Scr
2 2 Swing and Sway 6.00 11 21-1
6 6 Laura B. 12.00 11.5 22-1 Scr
13 13 Whole Scoop 20.00 14.3 27-1 Scr
15 15 Half a Go Go 20.00 14.8 28-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Lane’s End

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Dream Dancing 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 La Coronel 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Daddys Lil Darling 20.00 3.8 7-1
11 10 New Money Honey 4.00 4 8-1
8 7 Madam Dancealot (IRE) 15.00 5 9-1
2 2 Proctor’s Ledge 4.50 5.5 10-1
9 8 Beau Recall (IRE) 12.00 7 13-1
10 9 Uni (GB) 4.50 7.5 14-1
7 7 Wuheida (GB) 4.00 8 15-1 Scr
1 1 Con Te Partiro 30.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Unforgetable Filly (GB) 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 5 C Dub 5.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Such a Tease 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Frank the Butcher 12.00 4.3 8-1 Scr
2 2 Makeamericagreat 10.00 4.8 9-1
12 11 Belgrano 10.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Bee Jersey 3.50 6.3 12-1
4 3 La Maquina Gris 8.00 6.5 12-1
10 9 Victory Cigar 20.00 7 13-1
8 7 Powerful Ally 4.00 7.3 14-1
7 6 Pleasantly Persist 15.00 9.8 18-1
11 10 Squardron Fourteen 30.00 11.3 21-1
9 8 Ukuru 20.00 11.8 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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