March 4, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Power Walker | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Waldorf | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kit Check | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Humor | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mizztic Tale | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | King Cake | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Itsthebourbontalkn | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Go Sal Go | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Ide Better Move | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Little Miss Rebel | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stellar Magic | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tamy’s Shot | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thats Roger Song | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carson’s Katie | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | I B Sweet | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Not Half Bad | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Minister of War | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zyanara | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Half Fast Rose | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Forgotten | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Purely Blessed | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cinco Cinco Diez | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Casual Cool | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Too Bad Chu | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | D’ Kingfish | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Timeslikethese | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Senor Guitar | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Going Country | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Classic Brahms | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cork Arm | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Letters | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Summer’s Due | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gary | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Top Mention | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hellofaguy | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sparkys Surprise | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No Richie | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Butta Got Uncs Bac | 4.50 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dontwishfortrouble | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mun Up | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blushing Dreamer | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Day Drinker | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Rock N Sake | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | John’s Luck | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tap City Baby | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Friend Flavin | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | B B Special | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Over Yonder | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fee Do | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brilliant Interest | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Katalust | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sister Kan | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Golden Domer | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Factory of Faith | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Made Me Shiver | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carolina Jasmine | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 9 | Italian Charm | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Cool Arrow | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Guest Suite | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Rise Up | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Shut the Box | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Awesome Saturday | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Siem Riep | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Galton | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | High Noon Rider | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Applicator | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | December Seven | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Mean Man | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Yonadixie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Cash First | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kayne’spotofgold | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ide B a Classic | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Krafty Boy | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fist Full | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hula Pie | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | True Flat | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cadillac Carter | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Orthodox River | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.