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Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 21, 2018

April 21, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hay Field 2.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Pink Twist 0.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Frosty Gal 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Unbridledadventure 5.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Beyond Discreet 15.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mr Maybe 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Catcho En Die (ARG) 2.00 2.6 5-1
6 5 Souperfast 1.80 2.9 5-1
1 1 Aire Bueno (CHI) 6.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Shamcat 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Voluntario 12.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 Lucky Ramsey 8.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Woodhaven S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nine Route 5.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Sand Dancer 1.40 1.8 3-1
4 3 Fifty 1.80 2.8 5-1
2 2 Archaggelos 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Infield Is In 15.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Terry O Geri 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Midnight Mission 1.60 SCRATCH
2 2 Proud Zip 3.00 2 4-1
1 1 Javelin 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Samadi Sky 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Conquest Expresso 4.50 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nominal Dollars 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Marriage Fever 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Pegasus Red 3.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Taoiseach 3.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Praetereo 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Jet Black 6.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Alaapatique 15.00 6 11-1
7 7 Bunyaan 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Tom’s Music 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Justinspeightofit 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Bunyan’s Axe 8.00 SCRATCH
10 7 Freeload 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Gio Lucky 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Seethisquick 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Spa Shackalacka 5.00 4 7-1
3 3 Tammany Giant 20.00 5.1 10-1
9 6 Reign Charger 15.00 5.3 10-1
8 5 Guy American Dream 15.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Pauseforthecause 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Purely Lucky 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Goodbye Brockley 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Breezy Gal 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Codrington 8.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Flat Calm 6.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Forever Daisy 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Vip Nation 20.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Alley to Calvary 15.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Formal Event 30.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Horoscope 2.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Swivel 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Dynamax Prime 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Blame the Thief 10.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Prophet’s Cat 6.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 J J’s Dreaming 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Light the Vow 12.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Discreet Mission 12.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Dooley 20.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – New York Stallion S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pure Silver 2.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 My Roxy Girl 4.50 3 6-1
9 9 Orchid Party 3.00 4 8-1
7 7 Our Super Nova 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Aunt Babe 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Wegetsdamunnys 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Baby Boss 12.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Cathy Naz 20.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Giant Boxer 20.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Ten Eyck 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Pirelli Tower 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Flat Bill 50.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Santo Antonio 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Appealing Briefs 2.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Collective Effort 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Battle of Saratoga 3.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Crossways 6.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Bourbon Did It 8.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Bad Guy 30.00 7 13-1
7 7 Zechariah 10.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 La Manche 10.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Fast as Kitten 15.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 The Mason Factor 15.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Joe’s Smokin Gun 50.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Blue Pride 20.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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