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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 21, 2018

April 21, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bagpipes 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Arboretum 20.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Ingadore 3.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Vibe 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 4 Fulkerson 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Tabaddol 5.00 4 7-1
3 3 Mansoor 15.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Weneedtotalk 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Soft Cheese 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Faster N Blazes 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Nautia 6.00 4 8-1
7 6 Ashy Taty 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Eternal Vow 3.50 4.2 8-1
6 5 Zena Rules 8.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Track Rose 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Rahway 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Special Relativity 2.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Miraculously 3.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Hazana 5.00 5 9-1
5 5 War Eagle’s Love 30.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Aubrey 15.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Evenscore 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Secret Town 12.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Ravish 1.60 2.1 4-1
7 6 Last Tap 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Midnight Buffet 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 More Moola 3.00 4 7-1
5 4 Sun Dress 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Doctor Dora 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 High Fashion Star 12.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Remembering Rita 3.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Strike the Flag 4.50 3.6 7-1
9 9 Hollywood Strike 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Red Right Hand 3.50 4.5 8-1
2 2 Vinyl 8.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Air On Fire 6.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 American Sea 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 Winter Union 12.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Pendant 15.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Sassy King 20.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Teryn It Up 5.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Heza Kitten 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Love Sick Kitten 1.20 3.9 7-1
2 2 Nobrag Justfact 5.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Smart Rags 12.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Applewood 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 End of Spirits 12.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Katie’s Cowboy 15.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Burnin Daylight 12.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Bartolome Murillo 30.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Tiz B B N 50.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Navajo 4.00 SCRATCH
9 7 Everyonelovesjimmy 3.50 2.1 4-1
8 6 Mermaid of Honor 4.00 2.9 5-1
10 8 Smart Response 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 5 Senza Te 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 2 Enrage 4.50 4.9 9-1
2 1 Black Agnes 10.00 6.1 12-1
11 9 Crimson Creed 30.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Bootsy’s Hadenough 15.00 7 13-1
5 4 Divine Queen 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Senior Investment 3.50 3.7 7-1
9 9 Closing Bell 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Siem Riep 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Bronson 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 One Liner 1.60 5.1 10-1
7 7 Sticksstatelydude 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Laddie Boy 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Niigon’s Edge 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 December Seven 15.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Curlins Vow 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Dixiana Elkhorn S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dot Matrix 30.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Itsinthepost (FR) 2.50 2.6 5-1
12 11 Hayabusa One (FR) 4.50 4 8-1
9 8 Bullards Alley 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 One Go All Go 10.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Oscar Nominated 5.00 5.4 10-1
8 7 Hunter O’Riley 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Call Provision 5.00 5.8 11-1
11 10 Big Bend 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 5 Canessar (FR) 15.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Danish Dynaformer 15.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Some in Tieme (BRZ) 15.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Just Like Richie 4.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 King of the Court 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Totally Boss 6.00 5 9-1
4 4 Rahfee Town 5.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Boots 12.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Dime Dropper 15.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Barahin 5.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Mac Jagger 10.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Willcat 30.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Eisenstaedt 6.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Chateau 30.00 7.6 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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