May 19, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Zip Van Winkle | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Huntin Buddy | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Producer | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cause to Action | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awesome Times Two | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zarski | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | All Out of Aces | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hardly a Secret | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Niigon’s Glory | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Philoctetes | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zulu | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hunter’s Strike | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shakurr | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Doctor Lee | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Las Vegas | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bwana Go | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Distorted Ransom | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Paddock Crasher | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One Fine Ride | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Secret House | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Brerry | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlins Vow | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shareholder Value | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nice Not Nice | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Great Minds | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Blasphemy | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 18 | 18 | Gray Nile | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Special Forces | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 17 | 17 | Delinquent | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Love Nest | 3.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | American Sea | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Alexandros | 5.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Strike the Flag | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | First Spring | 3.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Yaroslavl | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Sahib | 6.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Forbidden Kitten | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Non Regrette | 10.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mr. Macfadden | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mt. Rushmore | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Imperial Express | 20.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bail Out | 15.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hurry Back | 30.00 | 14.9 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Santino | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Special Relativity | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dial Me | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Holly Go Lightly | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bella Verde | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Weneedtotalk | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Decant | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Heaven’s Creation | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tempestuous Amy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wholehearted | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Moolamiss | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Economies of Scale | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Shezappealing | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Maria Rose | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Star Quest | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nautia | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Greeley and Ariana | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Classy Music | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stave | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rahway | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Deadline | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Drift Away | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Missouria | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sydney Freeman | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hayworth | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Breaking Beauty | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Over Thinking | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drinks On Me | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Senior Investment | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Colonelsdarktemper | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rocky Tough | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fort Fortitude | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jess I Am | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thirstforlife | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Laddie Boy | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Louisville H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Some in Tieme (BRZ) | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cartoon | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Designed for War | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Roman Approval | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bronson | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cooptado (ARG) | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | A Bag of Money | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Hot Rio | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Time for War | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blitsig | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Operator | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Arch You Ready | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aggravator | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Drunken Fridays | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Warrior Inside | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Briar Jumper | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Pancho | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.