July 8, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Acrobatic Ally | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jo Jo’s Wine | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Case Cracker | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Council Rules | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Nook | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dorothe Marie | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Kipper Doodle | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Jimmy At Last | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Enzoexpress | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Get Hammered | 1.60 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dazzling Truths | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cast a Stone | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | R Last Cat | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Attack | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chrome Attack | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Golden Story | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hey Pretty Boy | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fist Full | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flyingbyu | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Offlee Fun | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Prince Who | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Greenhorn | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Limestone | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | La Pinata | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | A J’s Posse | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rake It Up | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Good Luck Dad | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Her Wild Lifestyle | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sullyvin’s G G | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Devout Type | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lady Dozer | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Numbers Game | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | R Four O One K | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Doda Doodleallday | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mockery | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Full Count | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dona Spey | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Belle Brezing | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Staria Peach | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flashly | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | High Power | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fortressa | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chosen Wisely | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Penny Slots | 50.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Warretta | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Konza Khrome | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | September Surprise | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Valiant Lady | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Twin Deuce | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | She’s Fine Tuned | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Risk E Lifestyle | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Notnthemoodforthat | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eva Destruction | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Petal Path | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shaban | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | McHenry | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Return of the Rock | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Not Chopped Liver | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flatter the Queen | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Senor Blanco | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Summer Castle | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Good Intent | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spectacular Act | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stealthy Traveler | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hide the Evidence | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Poddubny | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Prima Storm | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Monday Pirate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mister Maestro | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jive Daddy | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gorgeous George | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Made to Fit | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kyzan | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pale Hose | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spanish Justice | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Solar Flair | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Green Means Go | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Franklin County | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.