August 5, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Valiant Lady | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | September Surprise | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hoosessential | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | It’s Springtime | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eva Destruction | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Good Luck Dad | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Squirrely Mike | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Gem City Jewel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Valid Storm | 0.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Musket Hunter | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Richiesonarampage | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Spanish Coyote | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Parrkaveli | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dubara (GB) | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Eqho | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dreamofjean E. | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mo’s M V P | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ruby Sioux | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silvera | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Amaroq | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Full Heart | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vapor Viper | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Greeleys Spirit | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Estragon | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Assaulter | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gentleman Richie | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Giant Breeze | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hayworth | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fonda Romana | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cubs Win | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Turbo Shaft | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | April Fifteenth | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Passion Plus | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Embarrassing | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cast Iron | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ferlin Husky | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Return of the Rock | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dumbmark | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Offlee Fun | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Legendary Vision | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Stein | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | A J’s Posse | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hide the Honey | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Some Say So | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diamonds At Dawn | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hint of Mint | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Heir Ball | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | On Probation | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | War Diamond | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Brittney On Blades | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kipper Doodle | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Non Regrette | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Solo Drink | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Handsome Harve | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kaliningrad | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Moment Is Now | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Here Comes Kyle | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Al | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Auchincloss | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Delta Levy | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kaylea’s Hero | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.