September 23, 2018 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Desert Lights | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 4 | Blurred Line | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | D’yer Mak’er | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Playwright | 1.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Over Rider | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rockin Jo | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cookie Crisp | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arch Contender | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Save the Sangria | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Out East | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Scotty Brown | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Graded On a Curve | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Southern Brigade | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Coach Villa | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Albie | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kid Chocolate | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Herecomesthejudge | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | U R Not So Bad | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shuddawuddacudda | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Motagally | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Front Run the Fed | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vekoma | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fifty Over | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mihos | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Epic Dreamer | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Garsoon | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | March Screamer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Frontier Market | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hierarchy | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carom | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heza Kitten | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Chantry Flats | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Love Nest | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candirita | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Letterman | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Duncastle | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Justinspeightofit | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kandinsky | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Souper Tapit | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Marengo Road | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Adulator | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Secret Passage | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Greek Alphabet | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hammerin Aamer | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Doyouknowsomething | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Testosterstone | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Westerland (GB) | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Beaux Arts | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Wantagh Queen | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Summer Squeeze | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Merlins Muse | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dream Passage | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hannah’s Smile | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tres Charmant | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Saratoga Treasure | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cirque | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ailish | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rock Ave. Road | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Citizen Matzo | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lune Lake | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Breezy Gal | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Birthday Gift | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shrink | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – John Hettinger S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Take Charge Aubrey | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Out of Trouble | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Frostie Anne | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Fifty Five | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Joan | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Feeling Bossy | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Conquest Hardcandy | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Munchkin Money | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | War Canoe | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tizzelle | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bonita Bianca | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Gallant Bloom H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lewis Bay | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Still There | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kirby’s Penny | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Highway Star | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Your Love | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Union Strike | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Holiday Disguise | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Ashley T. Cole S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | J J’s Dreaming | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Control Group | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Call Provision | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Offering Plan | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kharafa | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Red Knight | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tapitation | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gucci Factor | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hit It Once More | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Black Tide | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Rapt | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Winston’s Chance | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Leaveematthegate | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14A | 14 | Freddymo Factor | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Roziere | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Plink Freud | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 2 | Short Pour | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Trumpit | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Evan’s Nice Now | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sander’s Empire | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tappanzee | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Caralicious | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Middle Out | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Itsakeyper | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Quietude | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ok Honey | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eighty Seven North | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cpl. Magdalena | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.