September 29, 2018 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Beach Front | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mister Muy Bien | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Adversary | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 9 | Le Gros Bill | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ro Jo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Woodbury | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Qian B C | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Gray’s Image | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Beachside | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Riken | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Mend Up | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Brix | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 1 | Helooksthepart | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Delta Bluesman | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Almithmaar | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Long Haul Bay | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Life in Shambles | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Pete’s Play Call | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Jupiter Rising | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Outrageous Bet | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Not So Quiet Man | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Andronikos | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Sparky | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Nutzforboltz | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Louisiana Lady | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Brockmoninoff | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Source Control | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 4 | Born for a Storm | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 3 | Shiraz | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 5 | Kerry Boy | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 2 | Five Star Bunt | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 1 | Starry Messenger | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Southern Phantom | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | U S Navy Cross | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Till Then | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Lucid Dream | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Firery Tale | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stilts | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fed Fever | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Deputy Zapper | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Catch a Bid | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Balon Rose | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tip At Tapit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sweeping In | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Madding Crowd | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Trish the Dish | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Timing | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Silver Kitten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Blue Jean Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 4 | Alasaayil | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3A | 1 | Limage | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 3 | Hollywood Glory | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | She’s a Black Belt | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Tweety Kitten | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Golden State | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Cool Beans | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Dolce Lili | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Guerriere (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Complicit | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Warranty | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Romantic Moment | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ponti Scheme | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Going Out | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Vosburgh S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Imperial Hint | 0.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Crow | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Ride | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Still Krz | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forge | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sightforsoreeyes | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maniacal | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hi Happy (ARG) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Spring Quality | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Robert Bruce (CHI) | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Channel Maker | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sadler’s Joy | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Highland Sky | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Carrick | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Teodoro (IRE) | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pilgrim S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Casa Creed | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Opry | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Somelikeithotbrown | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Forty Under | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Social Paranoia | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spirit Animal | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rhythm With Soul | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vineyard Sound | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pipes | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dashing Dan | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ole Mole | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Jockey Club Gold Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Diversify | 0.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mendelssohn | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Discreet Lover | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gronkowski | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Patch | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Thunder Snow (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carlino | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Uno Mas Modelo | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Chiara Luna | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Ferdinanda | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nantucket Red | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lion in Wait | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Out of Trouble | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Transaction Tax | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Initiate | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Remarqued | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fools Gold | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stainless | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.