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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 17, 2018

October 17, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Concord Coupe 2.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mine Mine Mine 3.50 SCRATCH
2 1 Pinotage 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 3 Holiday Storm 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 8 Summer Lovin 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 2 Millville 20.00 4.6 9-1
11 9 Miss Brenda 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 4 Smokin Ash 20.00 5.2 10-1
7 6 Queen Jeanne 20.00 6.1 11-1
6 5 Ridgeline Hope 20.00 6.4 12-1
8 7 Tres Mas 20.00 7.2 14-1
12 10 Talk Game 30.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 My Peeps 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Krissys Manicure 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Arch Arch Baby 3.50 2.4 5-1
5 4 What What What 3.00 3 6-1
2 2 Ivy’s College Fund 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 5 Radiantrithym 3.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Proud Dixie 8.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 He’s the Souperwon 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Lake Nakuru 2.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Half Shot 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Merlin’s Song 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Whatafind 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Love Point 6.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Fake Solution 5.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Cowboys Dream 5.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Post Close 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Fluellen 12.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Game Day Decision 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 War Film 12.00 5.5 10-1
11 10 Dollar Blue 12.00 6.9 13-1
10 9 Temple City Star 20.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 No Picture Charlie 30.00 8.1 15-1
13 11 Fast Data 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Seeking Bull 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Sun Dress 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Native Wonder 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Katie the Cutie 4.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Miss Shawhan 4.50 2.1 4-1
2 1 Quality Street 8.00 3 6-1
4 3 Soaring Now 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 I. Damiana 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Spanish Arch 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 Commercial Appeal 12.00 6.2 12-1
5 4 Spearette 20.00 6.4 12-1
14 11 Blame the Dream 12.00 7.4 14-1
8 7 Ticket to Riches 15.00 7.5 14-1
10 9 Native Wahoo 15.00 8.2 16-1
11 10 Heronetta 20.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Discreetness 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Capital Letters 10.00 4 7-1
3 3 All About Ashley 4.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Rich Daddy 3.50 4.1 8-1
5 4 Shareholder Value 6.00 4.2 8-1
9 8 Langdarma 3.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 One Mean Man 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Hollywood Critic 10.00 6.2 12-1
10 9 Jerrid 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 7 Vaporman 12.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Welovecandy 12.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Belgian 3.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Sharm El Sheikh 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 6 Totally Boss 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 3 Linburgh’s Kitten 6.00 4.3 8-1
10 9 Snapper Sinclair 4.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Royal Commish 20.00 5.7 11-1
5 4 Tommytom 12.00 6 11-1
8 7 Student Body Left 6.00 6.1 12-1
9 8 Savage Battle 12.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bingwa 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Thunderous Gem 8.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Fightress 4.50 3.6 7-1
10 8 Bell’s the One 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 4 Abaco Dream 6.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Marvelous Martina 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 7 Midnight Karma 5.00 4.9 9-1
4 2 Syllable 12.00 4.9 9-1
11 9 Street Band 6.00 5.7 11-1
5 3 Melrose Inn 20.00 6.4 12-1
8 6 Next Dance 15.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Discovered 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Sekondi 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Ghost Story 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Blue Lute 2.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Gostisbehere 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Yourdecisionotmine 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Mr Darcy 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Create Again 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Hello Holiday 20.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Bacoli 20.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Hey Big Guy 30.00 6.6 12-1
10 9 Cruz Diez 20.00 7.3 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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