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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 21, 2018

October 21, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tax 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Dictator 3.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Allegiance 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 Clipboard Money 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 It’s Game Time 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Galindo 3.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Shoeless 8.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kahramani 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Li’l J 3.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Bud’s Bayonet 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Ambidextrous Alex 5.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Flying Frank 6.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Two If by Sea 10.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Mayor Mac 6.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Mark My Way 15.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Cataroux 20.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Handiwork 15.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Court’s Ruling 30.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Lovesomuch 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Whata Perfect Day 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Whatafind 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Agitator 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Noble Nebraskan 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Twelfthofneverland 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Kathak 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Mr. Big City 15.00 5 9-1
7 6 Half Shot 8.00 5.1 10-1
9 8 Diplome 4.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 El Ahijado 8.00 6 11-1
12 11 Bluegrass Parkway 5.00 6 11-1
10 9 Tuaandtwentysix 8.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Plumb Line 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 5 Fine Tune 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 10 Twice Please 30.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Title Ready 3.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Rugbyman 2.00 4 8-1
2 2 Eisenstaedt 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Zanesville 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Lone Rock 20.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Fort Peck 3.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Bal Harbour 5.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Front Door 15.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ipanema Beach 3.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Mo Moxie 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Smile More 2.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 She Is Bedazzling 20.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Stargirl 4.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Snuck Out 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Seeds of Time 15.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 St. Louise 12.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Tripple Step 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Goldberry 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Nootka Sound 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Thoughtless 2.50 SCRATCH
4 2 Spellker 4.50 2.8 5-1
5 3 Excessivespending 2.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Luvin Bullies 15.00 3.1 6-1
6 4 Miss O’Hara 15.00 4.8 9-1
10 8 Natural Wonder 5.00 5 10-1
7 5 Boom Bam Bing 15.00 5.6 11-1
8 6 Crazy Sweet 20.00 5.9 11-1
9 7 Sweet Angel Roan 30.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mylady Curlin 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 C. S. Incharge 5.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Toasted 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Inspeightofyou 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Red Dane (ITY) 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Miss Mimosa 3.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Oh So Terrible 6.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Fuerza 15.00 6 11-1
8 8 Awesome Gal 20.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Rood And Riddle Dowager S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Rahway 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Daring Duchess 2.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Viva Vegas 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 English Affair 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Amboseli 5.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Vexatious 3.50 5.2 10-1
8 8 Res Ipsa 6.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Savannah Belle 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Shezaprado 12.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Beach Flower 15.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mun Up 20.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Grateful Cause 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Paddy’s Notes 3.00 2.9 6-1
3 2 How’s My Bud 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Run to Freedom 8.00 5.2 10-1
12 11 Reeder 5.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 Swamp Ruler 6.00 6 11-1
7 6 Tiz Funny 10.00 6.1 11-1
11 10 She Read My Texts 6.00 7.2 14-1
6 5 Ceejay’s Mister 20.00 7.2 14-1
9 8 Emmett’s Dream 20.00 8.6 16-1
10 9 Street Factor 30.00 8.8 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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