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Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 16, 2018

December 16, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Thread the Needle 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Communal 1.80 3 6-1
1 1 Hattie L 2.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Dreamers and Me 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 That’s Speightful 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Hurricane Sheila 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Sierra Sarah 20.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lem Me Tel Ya 4.50 SCRATCH
6 5 Monteleone 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 3 Thunder’s Honor 1.80 2.8 5-1
1 1 Takeoff 12.00 3.7 7-1
3 2 I Love Jaxson 6.00 4 8-1
5 4 Change of Venue 4.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Magnetron 20.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2A 2 Big Thicket 2.50 SCRATCH
9A 8 Fillet of Sole 2.50 2.9 5-1
6 5 Pretentious 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 7 Admiral Blue 5.00 4 8-1
4 3 Potomac 4.50 4 8-1
7 6 Maimo 4.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Take It to Scale 10.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Special Story 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Felix in Fabula 12.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Top of the Mint 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Show Prince 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 London House 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Hushion 10.00 4 7-1
4 4 Captain Frost 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Bank Gala 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Wisecrack 20.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Ventus 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 D Emcee 15.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tied Up 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Moment of Triumph 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Salty Smile 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 4 Esther the Queen 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Honey Graeme 3.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Elizabeth Nicole 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 Summer Punch 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 3 B Three 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 6 Mercurian 12.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Flatexcel 12.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Starship Zeus 2.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Expert 2.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 One River Place 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Transistor 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 2 Playwright 4.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Fifty 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 6 Dooley 20.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Papa Shot 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Uncle Sigh 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 J J’s Dreaming 4.50 3.4 7-1
4 4 Blame the Thief 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Gio d’Oro 6.00 5.1 10-1
10 9 Blugrascat’s Smile 8.00 5.3 10-1
11 10 Gambler’s Fallacy 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Gypsum Johnny 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Testosterstone 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 8 Dublinthepleasure 15.00 7.9 15-1
12 11 Here Comes Tommy 30.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Holy Week 30.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Cartwheelin Lulu 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Kosciuszko 3.00 1.9 4-1
12 11 Thorny Tale 4.50 3.4 7-1
6 6 Blindwillie McTell 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Kadens Courage 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Bustin Hoffman 8.00 4.6 9-1
11 10 Riken 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Invaluable Will 15.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Lost in Manhattan 20.00 7.3 14-1
10 9 Dark Money 20.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Bebe Banker 30.00 9 17-1
8 8 Chicken Valley Rd 30.00 9.2 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Sander’s Empire 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 It’s a Lovely Day 1.60 2.3 4-1
2 2 Rare Gift 4.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Tiztinabella 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Dirty Bird 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Devil’s Flair 12.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Gypsy Mama 15.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Weekend Forecast 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Flat Out Funky 20.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Mats Checkride 20.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Whodunnitandran 20.00 9.4 18-1
11 11 Semaya 20.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 Sarah’s Rainbow 20.00 9.9 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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