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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 6, 2019

April 6, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Topper T 2.00 1.4 3-1
6 7 Preamble 1.60 1.6 3-1
1.7 3-1
3 4 Thomas Shelby 3.50 2.4 4-1
4 5 Wallace 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 2 Dalliance 15.00 2.5 5-1
2 1 Fayette Warrior 8.00 3.1 6-1
1A 3 Dixie Highway 15.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 15 Runnin’ Ray 5.00 SCRATCH
2B 16 Big Max 30.00 SCRATCH
2 14 Blazin Liason 30.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Ol Grey Ghost 20.00 SCRATCH
3 1 Ry’s the Guy 5.00 1.3 2-1
11 9 Honest Mischief 1.20 1.6 3-1
1.6 3-1
1 5 Bandit Swanson 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 6 Twelfth Labour 15.00 3.1 6-1
5 3 Island Song 8.00 3.2 6-1
12 10 Camp Randall 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 4 Zoe’s Delight 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 2 Kneedeepinsnow 20.00 4.3 8-1
8 7 Silverzar 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 8 Shared Legacy 20.00 4.9 9-1
13 11 Historian 20.00 5.2 10-1
14 12 Methodical 12.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Covfefe 2.00 1 2-1
1.7 3-1
6 6 Take Charge Angel 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Free Cover 4.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Fightress 8.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Gracetown 8.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Gold Credit 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Road Tiger 10.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Lavina 30.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Yield 20.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Madison’s Quarters 20.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sparticle 8.00 SCRATCH
1.7 3-1
10 9 Wild Shot 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 5 Almithmaar 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 6 Zipp On By 6.00 2 4-1
9 8 Torazo 8.00 2.1 4-1
8 7 Midnight Pleasure 8.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 The Hardest Way 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Gotta Go 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Driven by History 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Giuseppe the Great 15.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 13 Aife 3.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Aspen Summer 4.50 SCRATCH
5 4 Amazing Audrey 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 3 Dynabee 5.00 2.4 5-1
2 1 Cured by Kitten 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 2 Polished 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 So Charming 10.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Screenwriter 12.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Asticou Trail 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Lantiz 30.00 4 8-1
1 6 Tropical Wave 12.00 4.1 8-1
1A 10 Snuck Out 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Lacustre (GB) 20.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Commonwealth S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Copper Town 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Proforma 20.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Recruiting Ready 3.50 1.1 2-1
6 4 Limousine Liberal 3.00 1.2 2-1
13 11 Warrior’s Club 10.00 2.3 4-1
11 9 Bobby’s Wicked One 8.00 2.6 5-1
4 2 Uncontested 12.00 3.3 6-1
10 8 Runaway Ghost 15.00 4.2 8-1
5 3 Still Having Fun 12.00 4.2 8-1
14 12 Majestic Dunhill 12.00 4.5 8-1
8 6 Uno Mas Modelo 20.00 4.7 9-1
12 10 Richiesinthehouse 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 5 Supreme Aura 30.00 5.8 11-1
9 7 New York Central 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Shakertown S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bound for Nowhere 4.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Conquest Tsunami 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Disco Partner 2.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Richard’s Boy 15.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Latent Revenge 20.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Imprimis 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Jazzy Times 20.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Will Call 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Shakhimat 30.00 4.6 9-1
12 12 Chaos Theory 20.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Square Shooter 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Bay Muzik 30.00 6.3 12-1
13 13 Angaston 20.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Madison S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1.5 3-1
4 4 Amy’s Challenge 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Late Night Pow Wow 3.50 2 4-1
5 5 Spiced Perfection 3.50 2.1 4-1
9 9 Shamrock Rose 2.50 2.1 4-1
8 8 America’s Tale 10.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Divine Queen 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Cathedral Reader 15.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Sultry 12.00 4 7-1
2 2 Create a Star 20.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Central Bank Ashland S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Feedback 3.00 SCRATCH
1.5 3-1
6 5 Restless Rider 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Jaywalk 1.60 1.7 3-1
1 1 Bizwhacks 15.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Chocolate Kisses 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 Bell’s the One 15.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Lady Kate 15.00 3.2 6-1
8 7 Out for a Spin 20.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Toyota Blue Grass S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Signalman 5.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Win Win Win 3.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Vekoma 1.80 2.5 5-1
1 1 Somelikeithotbrown 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Dream Maker 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Admire 15.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Parsimony 20.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Sir Winston 15.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Lucky Lee 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Market King 20.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 So Alive 15.00 5.2 10-1
13 13 Moonster 30.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Chess Chief 30.00 6.6 12-1
14 14 Aquadini 30.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Michelles Fault 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Vasilisa 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Scary Animal 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Princess Kiah 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Astoundment 4.00 1.3 2-1
12 12 Stamp 6.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Delta’s Kingdom 2.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Art of Almost 8.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Hungry Kitten 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Choate Bridge 8.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Macabre 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Scilly Isles 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 She’s Got Moves 30.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Tynagh Spirit 20.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Tootsie 15.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Passport Required 30.00 5.7 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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