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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 19, 2019

July 19, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Legion Storm 1.80 2.2 4-1
5 5 Bourbon Mission 1.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Ridolfo 12.00 6.9 13-1
7 6 Therisastormbrewin 8.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Quintarelli 20.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Gratto Swing 30.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Lorcan 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Destiny Over Fate 4.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 First Forever 3.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Carrizo 1.60 4.7 9-1
5 5 Queen Kahen 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Bronco Sally 4.50 5.7 11-1
2 2 Movie Score 20.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 L. A. Page 15.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Paradiso 10.00 7 13-1
12 12 Andretta 6.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Corey Scores 8.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Doll 3.50 7.8 15-1
10 10 Tatterazzi 12.00 8 15-1
6 6 J J Jen 12.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Dearly Declared 4.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Plink Freud 6.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 The Great Johanna 10.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Tax Me Naught 30.00 10.3 20-1
2 2 Kitty Therapy 15.00 11.9 23-1
8 8 Rhinegold 30.00 14.3 27-1
13 13 Nasty Affair 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Blame It On Mom 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sir Ballantine 2.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Shareholder Value 1.40 3.6 7-1
2 2 Indian Guide 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 Bolita Boyz 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Javelin 6.00 4.9 9-1
6 5 Great Going 30.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Getoffmyback 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kiawah Sunset 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Finite 2.50 4.1 8-1
7 6 Mrs. Danvers 3.50 4.4 8-1
4 3 Inveterate 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Larry’s Baby 15.00 5 9-1
8 7 Sweet Kisses 4.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Cat’s Pajamas 8.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 Princess Cadey 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Cross Border 4.50 5.4 10-1
1 1 Tactical Pursuit (IRE) 10.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Herecomesyourman 8.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Clear for Action 3.50 7.1 13-1
12 12 He Iz Gone 15.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Willing to Speed 6.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Red Right Hand 15.00 7.7 14-1
8 8 Labeq 10.00 7.7 14-1
9 9 Rhode Island 8.00 8.3 16-1
4 4 Violent Delights 15.00 10.8 20-1
10 10 Whiskey Is My Wine 10.00 11.6 22-1
6 6 Quality Choice 20.00 12.1 23-1
13 13 Soul Fight 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Lemonist 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Neepawa 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 5 Midnight Tea Time 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Cape Angel 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Pillar Mountain (IRE) 2.50 6.2 12-1
1 1 Krewe Chief 15.00 6.6 12-1
8 7 Kulin Rock 15.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Sentry 6.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Violet Blue 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Crackspeed (ARG) 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Winter Union 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Turco Bravo (CHI) 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Engage 1.60 2.6 5-1
6 5 He Hate Me 10.00 3 6-1
5 4 Speightsford 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 3 Honorable Treasure 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 6 Bon Raison 5.00 6 11-1
3 2 Mr. Dougie Fresh 3.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Seven Trumpets 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake George S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Regal Glory 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 2 Dogtag 2.50 2.8 5-1
7 3 Blowout (GB) 2.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 The Mackem Bullet (IRE) 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Winter Sunset 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Espresso Shot 1.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Stillwater Cove 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Known But to God 10.00 3.4 7-1
5 5 Final Say 3.50 3.7 7-1
1A 1 Goose Drank Wine 8.00 4.6 9-1
9 8 Impunity 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Super Silver 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Sneads 12.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Dark Storm 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 6 Claytnthelionheart 30.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Smidge 50.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Ranger Up 1.00 SCRATCH
11A 11 Storm Rider 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Northern Haze 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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