August 10, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Chez Paree | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | La Negra Noche | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Contendress | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Josephine Baker | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good News | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mysteriously | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Colors | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Salty Solution | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Fast Dreamer | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Charliecando | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Nicely Nicely | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Linfield | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Schmoozin | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lykan | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jurisdiction | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Heater | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Top Justice | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Our Bay B Ruth | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Meghan | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cloche | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nurse Sadie | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gentle Touch | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Detour | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quality too Spare | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Just a Look | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cammack | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Bariley | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Marzo | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Christian C | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ruffolo | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Don’task Don’ttell | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Dorothy | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crafty Angel | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wishing Belle | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ferber | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eye On the Finish | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jazz Channel | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fall Moon | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She Can’t Sing | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Summer Day | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | The Gray Blur | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pixelate | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Caramelito | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Flap Jack | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mister Not Funny | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ry’s a Flying | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Recklessness | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buttered Noodles | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warrant Officer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Good Yegg | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Hurricane Highway | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Vincitore | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | True Loyalty | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sakonnet | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ioya Again | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Behind Enemy Lines | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Violent Storm | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Americandy | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jackfruit | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sho Poke | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Rustic Rick | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bird | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bruce D. Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Big Drink of Water | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Can’t Hide From Me | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lexitonian | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Donnels Creek | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Manny Wah | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dabo | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Forloveofcountry | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Betwithbothhands | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sovereign Impact | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hero Tiger | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dazzling Truths | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Beverly D. S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Sistercharlie (IRE) | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Competitionofideas | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Remember Daisy | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Thais (FR) | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Magic Wand (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Oh So Terrible | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesometank (GB) | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fleeting (IRE) | 2.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Secretariat S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Valid Point | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fog of War | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Crafty Daddy | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Last Zip | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Faraway Kitten | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ry’s the Guy | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Never No More (IRE) | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Van Beethoven | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Arlington Million Xxxvii S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bricks and Mortar | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Robert Bruce (CHI) | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hunting Horn (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magic Wand (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Great Day (ARG) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Captivating Moon | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bandua | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Catcho En Die (ARG) | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Intellogent (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pivoine (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Pucker Up S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Cafe Americano | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indigo Gin | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mercilla | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Winter Sunset | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Art of Almost | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Princesa Carolina | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lightscameraaction | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Winning Envelope | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Comic Kitten | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Hattie (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gamblin Train | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sky Freak | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.