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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 20, 2019

September 20, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lookin At Blessing 2.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Drunken Fridays 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Regal Look 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Bear Trappe 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Homefortheweekend 4.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 My Kinda Kid 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Obtained 6.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bronze Charm 2.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Its Cold in Dehere 3.50 4.5 9-1
5 5 Wosie 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Karate Hottie 4.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Moonfield 4.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Mischievious Lass 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Macbu 8.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Bird Tycoon 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Polished Copper 3.50 3.9 7-1
10 9 Algy 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Our Lizzy Lou 5.00 4.9 9-1
9 8 Arbanne 15.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 Dixie Queen 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 Cold Hearted Wench 5.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Goingtoagogo 10.00 6.5 12-1
7 6 Emely Heart 15.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Larry’s Baby 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Folly 3.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Luna Fortis 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 British Invader (GB) 3.50 5.6 10-1
5 5 Absolute Love 6.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Cassidy Ave 4.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Grats Road 4.00 7 13-1
2 2 Caspers Run 10.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Bella Kristina 12.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Halfway 4.00 3.5 7-1
11 9 Data Star 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Tres Prinsesas 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 6 Her Kare 5.00 5.5 10-1
3 2 Veilazig 12.00 5.7 11-1
10 8 She Wants More 15.00 5.9 11-1
9 7 Ash Blonde 10.00 7.2 14-1
2 1 Forever Shining 20.00 7.3 14-1
7 5 Seemslikeoldtimes 12.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Mesange 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Magna G Force 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mine My Time 4.50 3.6 7-1
10 10 Always 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Nice of Me 6.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Michael T 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Sandbagger Al 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 His Giant 5.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Damiano 8.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Replete 3.50 7 13-1
9 9 Amani’s Kitten 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Rustic Rick 12.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Line Judge 2.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Wile E Peyote 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Dak Attack 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Fact Finding 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Pete’s Play Call 4.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Guest Suite 5.00 5.6 10-1
1 1 Madison’s Luna 8.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gold Street 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Complexifier 1.80 3.7 7-1
1 1 Liam’s Legend 15.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Dawn’s Early Light 5.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Court Sky 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Don Bourbon 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Bigmancan 6.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Race Driver 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Sky Ride 12.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Lastchanceatglory 15.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Jupestar 20.00 7.3 14-1
12A 12 Midnight Jostar 10.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 Seven and Seven 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Newscaster 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Archie Can’t Sell 10.00 SCRATCH
16A 16 Boss Onthe Horizon 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Morning Social 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 2 Tapit Wise 3.00 3.4 6-1
10 8 Eskenforit 4.50 3.8 7-1
6 5 Mo Zone 8.00 3.9 7-1
8A 6 Claytnthelionheart 4.50 4.3 8-1
5 4 Seek the Peak 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 Verve’s Humor 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 7 Job Security 4.00 5.1 10-1
11 9 Long Gray Line 20.00 7 13-1
1A 1 Fireball Shot 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Ucanthankmelater 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Miss Bigly 3.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Latest Version 3.50 3.8 7-1
10 10 Daddymademedoit 4.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Another Day of Sun 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Rodhwaan 4.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Trish the Dish 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Unchained (IRE) 12.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Champagne Diet 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 R C Kiss 20.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Henley Hill (GB) 10.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Lemon Chill 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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