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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 22, 2019

September 22, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ulele 1.80 1.6 3-1
4 4 Cubs Win 3.00 3 6-1
6 6 Peru (GB) 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Fizzy Friday (GB) 4.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Unique Factor 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Don’t Tell Marge 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Drinking Dixie 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 My Sixth Sense 1.60 2.5 5-1
6 5 Bump Bailey 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Box of Chocolates 5.00 2.9 5-1
5 4 Peppered 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Aquadini 5.00 4 8-1
7 6 Father G 6.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Bird 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Heroic Officer 1.80 2.9 6-1
2 2 Sunflower Rose 4.50 2.9 6-1
7 6 Seven Seventeen 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Sister Alex 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 3 Wises Landing 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Over the Blues 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 5 All American Jewel 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Little Red Frog 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Curate 1.60 1.9 3-1
1 1 D Squared 4.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Maniacal 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Mr Ashley 3.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Big Bella Brown 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Belle Tapisserie 3.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 Racer 15.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Super Terrific 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Wrath 3.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Yabba Dabba Dude 15.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Greenspan 2.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Kansas City Zip 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Deal Neal In 5.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Miracle Hill 8.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Trebulski 12.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Logan Pass 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Superado 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Reason to Soar 4.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Italian Charm 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Always a Suspect 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Fifth Title 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Driven by History 4.50 5 9-1
8 8 Laddie Boy 10.00 5 9-1
3 3 All About Ashley 8.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Starship Zeus 12.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 No Funny Biz 12.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Cheytac 4.50 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Lady Jenneviere 1.60 1.1 2-1
8 8 Jack Beanstalk 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 End Zone 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Went 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Super Mamba 6.00 5 9-1
6 6 Animate 6.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Street Ready 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 No Problemo 12.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Deanos Cape 15.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Fan Favorite 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Czechmight 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Unsweet Tea 4.00 2.3 4-1
8 7 Wedding Belle 4.50 3.4 7-1
13 10 April Entry 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 She’s So Bossy 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Elevententeetime 5.00 5.7 11-1
10 8 Mrs. Bucket 12.00 5.7 11-1
12 9 The Mallard Queen 6.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Broadway Diner 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Quiet All Around 8.00 7.3 14-1
6 5 Ronan 12.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Lil’ Shopper 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Scotty’s Folly 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Actress On Board 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lady C 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Nikki Beach 2.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Lucky Move 3.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Fun Paddy 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Jo Marie 6.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Summer Blossom 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Romani 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Gorgeous in Rags 3.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Tiz Ella 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gold Endeavor 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Something Natural 1.20 3.4 7-1
9 9 Bahama Channel 20.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Da Gold Room 20.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Digital Star 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Templet 15.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Blanket of Roses 4.50 5.8 11-1
2 2 Prefect 15.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Palace Coup 15.00 7 13-1
8 8 Atlas Moon 30.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Louwit 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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