November 10, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Hemlock | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dan the Man Can | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | U S Army Corps | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | This Ill Defend | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Complex System | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Degas | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Witherspoon | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Trash Talker | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Centurion | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hard to Be Humble | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Worldlink | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fortune Found | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Mr Phil | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | No Bad Days | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ikeisgreat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hit a Provisional | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star Swept | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morelikelythannot | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Augusta Moon | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Positive Skew | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pecatonica | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alley to Calvary | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Unabridged (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Appreciate | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stonewalker | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Crater Rim | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Solitary Gem | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lem Me Have It | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | First Dawn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Margie Music | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Party in the Sand | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kid Bourbon | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spice Road | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Road Home | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Corcoran | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Communicator | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hail Michigan | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mungojerrie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Mo Diddley | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Playthatfunnymusic | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sudden Surprise | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | O Shea Can U See | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Candid Desire | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Laura’s Posse | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Summer Bourbon | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | What a Catch | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jewel Can Disco | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fleet Warrior | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Crack Shot | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elenzee | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Jack the Cat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Three Outlaws | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Oh My Papa | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Preferred Outcome | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Valmont | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Brockmoninoff | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Market Bubble | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 11 | Alphastest | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Coolboy | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sobersick N Sorry | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bears Mafia | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Wild William | 8.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Starry Messenger | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bydawnsearlylight | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Myawaya | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Princess Corey | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Silver Bank | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | New York Supreme | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Funfetti | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Lizzie | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cazilda Fortytales | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Voltairine | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Bankers Daughter | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Invasion | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carpe Amorina | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Luzmaria | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Network Effect | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aurelius Maximus | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Airtouch | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I Love Jaxson | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gio d’Oro | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dark Storm | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Allured | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Family Biz | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Kid Is Frosty | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fair Regis | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Newly Minted | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Our Super Nova | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bluegrass Jamboree | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Carrera Cat | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | My Roxy Girl | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Espresso Shot | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Filibustin | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Purrageous Dyna | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cathy Naz | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Stewart Manor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Karak | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Miss J McKay | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fly So Pretty | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bayerly Seen | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Violent Point | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lucrezia | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | A Freud of Mama | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Enola Gay | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Time Limit | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Classy Sadie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mosienko | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Masque d’Oiseau | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Spanish Point | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Monkeyseemonkeydo | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lookin At Roses | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Loaded Joe | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sandy Lane Kitten | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Freedom Prince | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Sneads | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Noble Nebraskan | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Roller Rolls On | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bold Gem | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pallas Athene | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Foti | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Final Say | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bray | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bad Dude | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hurricane Andrew | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seediskid | 50.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.