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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 23, 2019

November 23, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fashion Island 2.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Santa Ana Winds 2.00 3 6-1
7 6 Canadian Sunset 4.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Scary Animal 8.00 4 8-1
8 7 Hot Copy 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Bird Key 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Mavalous Mavalous 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Revealing Quality 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Donnels Creek 3.50 3 6-1
7 7 Augie 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Whiskey Echo 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Principe Guilherme 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Sovereign Impact 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Elgar 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Flowerpecker 8.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Joker On Jack 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 3 Axiomo 5.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Alec and Arthur 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Johnny Unleashed 6.00 4.5 8-1
3 2 Chipofftheoldblock 10.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Karak 1.80 SCRATCH
7 7 Toma Todo 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Broken Oath 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Badgeri Candy 6.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Unsweet Tea 3.50 4.6 9-1
11 11 Street Dazzle 3.50 4.9 9-1
9 9 My Maiko 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Traci’s Greeley 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Starvana 15.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Smashville 20.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Live It Up 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Azlynn’s Dreamer 12.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Alreadytapin 20.00 9.7 18-1
10 10 Delaney Ferry 30.00 10.3 19-1
13 13 Miss Emma’s Song 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 2 Raggedy Annie 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 3 Mom’s Pass 1.80 3.3 6-1
7 4 Hollee Peach 15.00 4.5 9-1
9 6 Dulcimer Dame 15.00 4.6 9-1
8 5 Lucky Quarters 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Worthaprettypenny 10.00 5.8 11-1
12 9 Simple Story 5.00 6 11-1
13 10 Boo’s Gal 15.00 6.4 12-1
11 8 Dulce Maria 20.00 7.8 15-1
10 7 Slainte 20.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 Dawdle 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Maddie’s Music 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Shining Colors 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Stage Left 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Grit and Glory 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Dr. Hipp 3.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Mo Zone 2.50 4 7-1
5 5 Lngtermrelationshp 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 One Last Strike 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Violent Storm 10.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Gold Street 1.20 2 4-1
9 8 Eyes of Glory 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Mayberry Deputy 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Noble Empire 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Major Fed 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Jimmie T 15.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Hidden Promise 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 High Proof 20.00 6.7 13-1
8 7 Profusion 15.00 6.8 13-1
10 9 My Name Is Phred 30.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Frontana 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Zypto 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 7 Sazerac 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 8 Pryor 4.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Hooray for Harvey 12.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Belmonte 5.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Summerduck 10.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 Dragon Drew 15.00 5.9 11-1
12 9 Aquadini 15.00 6.6 12-1
6 5 Homeview 8.00 6.9 13-1
15 11 Rocky Roma 30.00 9 17-1
13 10 Pleasant Sunrise 30.00 9.8 19-1
4 4 Drunken Fridays 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Honduras 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cadron Flats 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bear Trappe 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Deano 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Tiny Danza 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 Excession 3.00 3.9 7-1
3 2 Don Bourbon 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 1 Montana Man 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 Pow Wow Prince 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 5 Ajzal 8.00 5.9 11-1
9 8 Newscaster 15.00 6.2 12-1
11 10 Unwavering 12.00 6.2 12-1
12 11 McShady 8.00 7.9 15-1
8 7 Mr. Big News 20.00 9.1 17-1
10 9 Holy Muchacho 12.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Dreams of Yvonne 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 3 Chewing Gum 3.50 1.8 3-1
10 7 New Colossus 12.00 3.7 7-1
9 6 Chase the Ghost 12.00 5.1 10-1
15 10 Incorrigible 8.00 5.1 10-1
8 5 Untraceable 10.00 5.7 11-1
14 9 Going for Gold 12.00 5.8 11-1
17 11 Fireball Shot 3.00 6.3 12-1
4 2 Tell Your Daddy 8.00 6.4 12-1
2 1 Pony Up 15.00 6.7 13-1
7 4 Faversham 20.00 7.6 14-1
12 8 Singapore Flash 30.00 9.2 17-1
16 16 Ecru 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Midnight Oasis 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Jumper 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Discovered 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Kadar 2.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Red Island (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH
18 18 Determinant 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Elite Class 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Race Driver 4.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Blood Moon 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Gold Endeavor 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Bourbon Wisdom 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Cigar Box 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Hail to the Chief 10.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 See the Pyramids 15.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Jerzees One 30.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Front Man 20.00 7.7 14-1
11 11 Peerless Brown 20.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Banana Pepper 30.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Bring Me a Check 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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