November 28, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Bizzee Mischief | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Foxy Mischief | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wholehearted | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bella Moon | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Parking Ticket | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Igottawhiteface | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Weneedtotalk | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blueridge Traveler | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Captivating Moon | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blended Citizen | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dabo | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hello Don Julio | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rare Form | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ballard High | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Approvethismessage | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Cedar Creek | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pete Marwick | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mystic Tiger | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rushed | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mucho Macho Dan | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Justenufftuff | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Dog | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flat Out Fast | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Comes N Threes | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | On John | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Mono | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Strong Yen | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Obtained | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Tadeo | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | Good Scout | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blip | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Commissario | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | John’s Rock | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Adhhar | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Surprise Encounter | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Secret Move | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mr. Sarinana | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Data Load | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Luckyinkentucky | 50.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Stormy Intent | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Nashvegas | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Limbo’s Promise | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Try Try Again | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cosmic Cat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Captain Scotty | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mucho | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zipp On By | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Eight Town | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pete’s Play Call | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Petrov | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Little Kansas | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hoonani Road | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Madison’s Luna | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Texas Wedge | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 4 | Jazzy Times | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 6 | Wilbo | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Battle Station | 50.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Gray Attempt | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Futile | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | El Capa Rojo | 50.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fast Boat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Smart Remark | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Carotari | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Holiday Stone | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Pablo Del Monte | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Undrafted | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bound for Nowhere | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Spectacular Gem | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Grade One | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Debating | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Super Terrific | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Copper Fiddle | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Nola Win | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Peppered | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Box of Chocolates | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Aqwaam | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Trebulski | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Optimal | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Topping | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mine My Time | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ready and Rich | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Equal Justice | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Goose Drank Wine | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Out Cold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Coltonator | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Preacher Power | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Morning Social | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Vice Versa | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hitch | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Passion Play | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | House Limit | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Ecru | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Make Noise | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | One for Richie | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Coworker | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nice of Me | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Treasure Trove | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Max Express | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Wicked Indeed | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Falls City H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ratajkowski | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mylady Curlin | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sally’s Curlin | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moonlit Garden | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Go Google Yourself | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Causeway | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grandaria | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Over Thinking | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vevina | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Tough Love | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uber Kirk | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Royal Daaher | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Early Mischief | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Grit and Curiosity | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Breaking News | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Botero | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Westwood Proud | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Easy Shot | 2.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Absolutely Aiden | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Franknjymme | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tight Ten | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Luna’s in Charge | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Over Protective | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hidden Ruler | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Silver Seeker | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Cardinal S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Starship Jubilee | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Limari | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Notapradaprice | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kallio | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stave | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Area | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Smart Shot | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | English Soul | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maroubra (FR) | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cash Out | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tweety Show | 50.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Smart Emma | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Brother Aaron | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Executive Branch | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Edgemont Road | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | On d’Oro | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chief Executive | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Special Reserve | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Savvy | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Four of Swords | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wild Behavior | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Real Man | 50.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Create Fearlessly | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mountain Air | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.