November 30, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bet Again | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ten Grand | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Our Motive | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Doug’s Bug | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lenape Drive | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Peace Lane Boy | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fix D Fence | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mira | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saint William | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Alma Derby | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amphibian | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lucky Streaker | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Highly Centsable | 4.50 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pure Valor | 4.50 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Taft’s Lil Boy | 6.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | La Beauty | 6.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swinging Galaxy | 8.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Warnock Springs | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Willy B Fast | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tackett | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Blue Harbor | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Star of Kodiak | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Morning Stride | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Broth | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Hierarchy | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Budro Talking | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Kitten’s Boy | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Cade’s On the Bump | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Mister | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Big City | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Enumclaw | 6.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tornado Boy | 5.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Messed Up | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Expect Ice | 4.50 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dickinson’s Image | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tap King | 3.50 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Terps | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Moneyinmypocket | 20.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heavy Traffic | 12.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cratus | 20.00 | 14.7 | 28-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tapizart | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Templet | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cruel Summer | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Palace Coup | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Divulgence | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cask | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Handy | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bigdaddy’sflyinghi | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Querencia | 8.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | You Say | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Super Mamba | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Calculate | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Curlington | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Custers Last Stand | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Atlas Moon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Conquistador Show | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Da Gold Room | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Bertie’s Galaxy | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Unrestricted | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Big Shanty | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Yankee Seven | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Release the Beast | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Silver King | 3.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 1A | 11 | It’s a Sweet One | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Guitarzan | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 7 | Bayou Bode | 6.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fuelinjectedprayer | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Papa’s Big Boy | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | The Last Zip | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | High Mounte (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tom Management | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pali High | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Limnery | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fredonian | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Ioya Again | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Executive Bonus | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Dream Halo | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bila Shak | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Antarctic | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Murry Spur | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Code of War | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Count Again | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Logical Myth | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Job Security | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ursula | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tapigal | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kizzy B | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cindy’s Prayer | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Audrey’s Time | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Could You | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Street Missy | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drapes | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Piece of My Heart | 5.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lovely Lady | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mam’selle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Richard R. Scherer Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hotshot Anna | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Play On | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | A Little Bit Me | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fame Feather | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | May Lily | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | On Probation | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | She’s All Skeet | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hidden Facts | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Uluru (IRE) | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sensible Myth | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Domonette | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Violent Times | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mentality | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bee Balm | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Upset Brewing | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Divine Queen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Kai Baby Kai | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sydster | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Time to Rome | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bibleman | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Jax Man | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | In a Bind | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gentilly Stage | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Drilling Report | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Totally Addicted | 5.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Alterana | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sir Pokerface | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Loveu and Proudofu | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Arties Game | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dusty Boy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.