December 11, 2019 Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | King Bayou | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fats | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pat Me Down | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pre Heat | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Closing American | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Victory Trip | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Round Quarter | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flashyboy Bobb | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | When I Do | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Social Cat | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Oliver’s Prayer | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Blue Bomber | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Masterly | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mr. Graceful | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Greeley’s Dealer | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fafa | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Little Toe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Pinch Assault | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Berko | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mizztic Tale | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Cap Rock Miner | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Matt’s Pride | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Storied Trip | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Laci Lu | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Langfuhr’s Angel | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lodi Mist | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Nola’s Sugarplum | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Quick Heat | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dancing Arches | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Awishforgreeley | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sienna Breeze | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mighty Pegasus | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bossy’s Trouble | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Top Ten Duchess | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hopeitsamiracle | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Joy’s Rally Finale | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Velvet Vision | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sarah Ann’s Pointe | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Slew City Susie | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Redding Well | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Agirlnamedsyd | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Angel Cat | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Brahms’ Regal Gal | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Batty | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Good Air | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Canrunalittle | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 4 | D J’s Finale | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Steel Drums | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Little Wise Guy | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Maclean’s Silver | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Superconductor | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kensley’s Hippie | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Grip Tight | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Political Crisis | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Schnitzel | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chroniqueur | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thirtysix G’s | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Atlantic Ruler | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Clear the Nile | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Solid Red | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Da Streekin Mo | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whiskey’s Gone | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hard Story | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Scissor Bill | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Overlyappealing | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Geauxcro | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | D’dawson | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mug Shot Man | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mr. Priority | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hermano T K | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lass Song | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Primetime Tiz | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Smooth Colliery | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Crimson Jet | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Captain’s Song | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | D’yeti Man | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Thegoodwitch | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Harlans Warrior | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tamariu | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Katniss | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spanish Arch | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yankee’s Fanny | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Fern Doll | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crowned Style | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rockin’rouxs Best | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Doorag Jimmy | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Atomic Candy | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sir Eske | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Charming Bullet | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pearlthirtyeight | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Captainontherocks | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Call Me Dusty | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Choate | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clever Prince | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trophy Daddy | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mainichi Harbor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.