December 19, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Justinspeightofit | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | New Frontier | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sneads | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Mr. Mike | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Ownitifyouwantit | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Superfan | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coast to Coast | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Appreciate | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Itsakeyper | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shrink | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Here Comes Helen | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Caralicious | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gray Witch | 1.60 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bobbyfromthepalm | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Hostile Witness | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uncle Ned | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Little Mazzy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Carnegie Song | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Geils Rocks | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big’s Gray Day | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Drink to the Clown | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Yah Huh | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | No Deal | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Letmetakethiscall | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hoponthebusgus | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trouble for Skylar | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nowitna River | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blissful Breeze | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Karen’s Gem | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dubai Bobby | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dan the Man Can | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Inside Risk | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blues City | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Him She Kisses | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Epic | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rejected Again | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | The Great Johanna | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nasty Affair | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Paved With Gold | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zecha | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carlisle Belle | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Am Impazible | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Offlee Irish | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Puttheglassdown | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Saratoga Giro | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Runforthemunnings | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | His Name Is Sue | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chateau | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Arthur’s Hope | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aristocratic | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Topaz Bride | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Courageous Girl | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dancing Kiki | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My My Michelle | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | I’m Fine | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Imprsstheprofessor | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | White Hot | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tornado Crossing | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Girl | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Luzmaria | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Queentigua | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.