December 21, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Call On Mischief | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beautiful Trauma | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Evil Lyn | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Myers Tiger | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Halama | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiz Susan Ann | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ursula | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4 | Roiland | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Botswana | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Majestic Sign | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cade’s On the Bump | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Firewater Jake | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Telekinesis | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Herecomesyourman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hierarchy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Letellier Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Kisses | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gee She Sparkles | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Taraz | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ursula | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Flyer | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Halama | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Cavalry Charge | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Strike Appeal | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Cernan | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mr. Big News | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | El Supremo | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Elite Class | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | In Sky We Trust | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Pyser’s Orb | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5 | Winning Impression | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Deanos Cape | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Matheson | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Coach Bahe | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Bigdaddy’sflyinghi | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dynamo Kid | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Mishko | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Suggested | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Total Destruction | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Calculate | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cask | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sunrise Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wicked Worry | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Curls and Bows | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Perfect Happiness | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Street Missy | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2B | 11 | Alley Music | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Piece of My Heart | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 4 | Skye Snow | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Super Legs | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mi Bella | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Heart River | 4.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shi O’Shi | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Alta’s Award | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Readyformycloseup | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Bonapaw S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Recount | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Powell | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Gray Attempt | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Wilbo | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Made You Look | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Star of Kodiak | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pete’s Play Call | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fast Boat | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jazzy Times | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Curlin | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sycamore Run | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Warrior’s Map | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Decision Maker | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | F F Rocket | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Digital Star | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Paul With All | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ready to Roll | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Shake Some Action | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Fort Knox | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Red Hot Devil | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Man of Honor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Brother Martin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Banks Island | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | First Citizen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Blushing K. D. S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | English Soul | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Notapradaprice | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Oh My | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Smart Emma | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Stave | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Avie’s Mineshaft | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Flower Party (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Corluna | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | La Signare (FR) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dream Passage | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Orageuse | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Sugar Bowl S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gold Street | 2.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amongst | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ryan’s Cat | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Axiomo | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shashashakemeup | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Self Taught | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Buddy Diliberto Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 5 | Factor This | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Captivating Moon | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Renaisance Frolic | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Space Mountain | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Late Nite Mischief | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Red Right Hand | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Parlor | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sailing Solo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Say the Word | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Secretary At War | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Honovi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dot Matrix | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Tenacious S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | C Z Rocket | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pioneer Spirit | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | M G Warrior | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lone Sailor | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tringale | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blended Citizen | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tenfold | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ballard High | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Extirpator | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Captivating Moon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Race Driver | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lynn’s Map | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Excession | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mr. Monomoy | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Allgrit | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pepper Pike | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Thirst | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nomo d’Oro | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sharecropper | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 14 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bootsie’s Galaxy | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Big Shanty | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Release the Beast | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Like Mike | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yankee Seven | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Harbor Knight | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | War Count | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Izzy’s Baby Boy | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.