December 22, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Orange Twister | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maw Maw’s Sophia | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Itybityquikasakity | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smart Pegasus | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nine Line Bind | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zydeco Music | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Go My Juliet | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beautifulandwild | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Senor Blanco | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Citali | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Overzealous | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Moonlight Mischief | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Briar Jumper | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Containment | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mizztic Tale | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 8 | Mustang Cat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Savvy Ally | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Munny | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | J D’s Girl | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Daaherachel | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Trina | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awesome Day | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fleeta Belle | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Napoleon’s Empire | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Breakers Point | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Kaliningrad | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Heart of a Dreamer | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Irish Hokie | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Big Time Player | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Meaningful | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mister Mister | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vacation Lover | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Red Hot Fuego | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Eat the Ticket | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bonny South | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mariposa d’Oro | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | O Seraphina | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Audrey’s Time | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kizzy B | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tale of Mona | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mom’s Pass | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Meritaten | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | La Negra Noche | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sweet Bay | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lucky Quarters | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cloud Ten | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bundle of Joy | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Aptiseno Line | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Diamond and Silks | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cazadora | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Dulcimer Dame | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | One Step | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hitch | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dream Halo | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Oro de Tejano | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nice of Me | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fredonian | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eastside Boy | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eskendereyas Dream | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jefe | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Limnery | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Tell Your Daddy | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Passion Play | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Charlie’sarchangel | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Sharp Prospect | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Beautiful Wall | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Jailhouse Kitten | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ioya Again | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Clear Vision | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Peace of Ekati | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Merlin’s Song | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Two Emmys | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | High Mounte (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Ike Walker | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Orange | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Over Funded | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Round Hill | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | My Prince | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Major Ridge | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Singing Aces | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Grand Marais | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mosta Flyin | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 7 | Boston Bob | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Slideruler | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beauty Boy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Chop Chop Charlie | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.