December 26, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Sir Advent | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lord Colliery | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Star Yankee | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Papa’s Big Boy | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Jacobs Flyer | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mikey’s Mouse | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Band Boss | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Vivinsky | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | He’s No Bully | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Chimneyville | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Special Connection | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blessed Anna | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Galileos Ballerina | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Baby Bele | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gifted Talent | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Jus Kim | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Prado | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Piper’s Buttercup | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Gator Proud | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Magine | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Little Red Frog | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Contendress | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kelly’s a Gem | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sensing Mischief | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fed Policy | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bluebird Sing | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Indellibly | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Silver Platinum | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tapalong | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flirtatious Kitty | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Strong Mandy | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Duchess of Dublin | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Belmar Beauty | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Bar Tap | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gretchen | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Adrenaline | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | May Hour | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 12 | 12 | King Bayou | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Halfourretirement | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Jennovodka | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flashyboy Bobb | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rhett n’ Scarlett | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Silent Cry | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Highly Centsable | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Doug’s Bug | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Striking Star | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Closing American | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Believeinholidays | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Morethanfishin | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Djinn of Djibouti | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hurry Back | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Silent Force | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | He’s a Climber | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tonights Star | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Slick Dude | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Love That Warrior | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Classy Toni | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Jackfruit | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 10 | Conative | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Gato Del Banco | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Days of Glory | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 15 | Dickinson’s Image | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ekati’s Verve | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lookin High | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Samaronti | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic West | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ballyhack | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tornado Boy | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mister Strange | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ekaterinoslav | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Holly Go Lightly | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orageuse | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quinn Murphy | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Havinfunyet | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Makealitlemischief | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dagny | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz Ella | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Midnight Sway | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Diamondcoat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Kulik Bear | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Golden Tiger | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Easy Shot | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rock Doc | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bullion | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Early Mischief | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bird Dog | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Kilbarry Lady | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Broadway Lady | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Tiz Forever | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Volador | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Enduringly | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Psycho Kitten | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rain Dance | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Teller to Sing | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dreaming of Paris | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | U S S Lexington | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Titan’s Treasure | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Twilight Glow | 20.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 13 | Artistic Jewler | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Bob Fortus Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Moonlit Garden | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Enchanted Ghost | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Grandaria | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Out for a Spin | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mariah’s Galaxy | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saracosa | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brunette Princess | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Ella | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Lagniappe | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Our Foolish Girl | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pink Appeal | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Oma Lee | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tiz Darby | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Smoothoutthetrack | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Emery’s Dream | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sandy’s Wager | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Angelic Kriss | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glads Love Cat | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Floatie | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strikingly Smart | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.