December 28, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Doll | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Queenofeverything | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pendolino | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Clever Tale | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Anydayisherday | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Memories Eternal | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Midnight Banker | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A Bridge too Far | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Getoffmyback | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Data Driven | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Brimstone | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Liam Lets Go | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mad Munnys | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Professor Snape | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Big Thicket | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bootlegger (FR) | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Breithorn | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Flatter Me | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Angry Man | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Manolito | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Montauk Traffic | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | David’s Gem | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Line | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Magic Carpet | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Richmond | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Alex M. Robb S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Buff | 0.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Twisted Tom | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dynamax Prime | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gio d’Oro | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Gemmy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fleet Irish | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Keep Your Distance | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Radiantrithym | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Mischief | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hoponthebusgus | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | No Deal | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gypsy Janie | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trouble for Skylar | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nowitna River | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cover Photo | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Boom Boom Kaboom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Whichwaytomalibu | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Graytful | 1.60 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Impetuous | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Aintitfunkynow | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Notorious Flirt | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Box of Rain | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Superego | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Scuttlebuzz | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | North Side | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Cause | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dreamofasamurai | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Farragut | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | True Palace | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Disco’s Bridge | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 16A | 16 | Mommie’s Jewel | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Saratoga Giro | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Puttheglassdown | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hawaiian Noises | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Chateau | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Runforthemunnings | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | His Name Is Sue | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arthur’s Hope | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Trick | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Prairie Fire | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Eye’s On You | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gilda Marie | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Collegeville Girl | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Winifred J | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Orchid Party | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bustin to Please | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 13 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Overtime Olivia | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ella’s Song | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Time Warp | 6.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | First Forever | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Quietude | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Saratoga Style | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tayler’s the Boss | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wailin Josie | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Kathy’s Cause | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tatterazzi | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Becca Takes Charge | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tarallucci | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Here Comes Meg | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Miss Ross | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Funderella | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Rousey | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Vitanza | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Sander’s Empire | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Take It All Back | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Margie Cat | 50.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Belief Cure | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Sweet Breeze | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.