December 29, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gypsum Johnny | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blame the Thief | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Orpheus (ARG) | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Poshsky | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Local Hero | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daddy D T | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Sandy Lane | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seven Lilies | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Playtone | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Officer Hutchy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Violent Point | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Firenze Freedom | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shadolamo | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Aubrey Tate | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sneaky Surprise | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cold Hard Cash | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Justintimeforwine | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Empire Express | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Forever Wicked | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zipalong | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Superego | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Future Book | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Brunate | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pave It | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Loverboy Lou | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | London House | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Northern Haze | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Rally Cap | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Our Honor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Take It to Scale | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Family Biz | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Horoscope | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Conforto | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Call the Cat | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hellbender | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Too Early | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ringgood | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wild Banker | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Go Rudy Go | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stash My Money | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Selfmade | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Valid Quest | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fivestar Bandit | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Oneshotatforever | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The Great Johanna | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tappanzee | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bustin Scones | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Paved With Gold | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Love and Love | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiz a Kitten | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carlisle Belle | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Zecha | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Am Impazible | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ok Honey | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Offlee Irish | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Peaches and Spice | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Spectre Bond | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | The Caretaker | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Potomac | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Somes Sound | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Charlie McCoy | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Ark in the Dark | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sicilia Mike | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | I Love Jaxson | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | American Rule | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Creative Style | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bay Ridge S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Our Super Nova | 0.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Out of Orbit | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mrs. Orb | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Cartwheel | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Held Accountable | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Fight On Lucy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Lucky Move | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Bobbyfromthepalm | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hostile Witness | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Uncle Ned | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Super Wicked Charm | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Little Mazzy | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Geils Rocks | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Now and Again | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Icy Dude | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lightning Rob | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Drink to the Clown | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yah Huh | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bay Burner | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | John Want Revenge | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.