January 4, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Galway Empire | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Aleph | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shandian | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Chiricahua | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Surprise Visit | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Danegeld | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lucky E | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tuxedo Sunday | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Super Dude | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Heavy Roller | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Supreme Aura | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | California Night | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Krewe Chief | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Lincoln | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | First Deputy | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Boom Boom Kaboom | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Tercero | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I Prowl Alone | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Spiritual King | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mommie’s Jewel | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Inspector Henning | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sneakiness | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Inscom | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hizaam | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tale of Mist | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mister Bobby | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coach Villa | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freedom Prince | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Affair | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Forty Factor | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Love That Jazz | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lucky Six | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | O Shea Can U See | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Brimstone | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Winning Withhonour | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Macho Miah | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Neighborhood Bully | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nuclear Code | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Toohottoevenspeak | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fun Prospect | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 3 | Him She Kisses | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dan the Man Can | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Yes for Less | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rejected Again | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Microscope | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Inside Risk | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Sacred Place | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Money Ride | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 7 | Stone Guitar | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | It’s a Risk | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Storm Prophet | 1.20 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Vincento | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Control Group | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Singapore Trader | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Danebury | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foolish Ghost | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – La Verdad S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Pauseforthecause | 0.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kept True | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cash Offer | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bluegrass Jamboree | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Indy’s Lady | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fight On Lucy | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aunt Babe | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Nan’s Plan | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Peggy Sue | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Appreciate | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Shrink | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Its a Chance | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Appletini | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Itsakeyper | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dazzling Speed | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Roses From Ben | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Scoregirlscore | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Kinky Sox | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Here Comes Helen | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bourbon High | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.