January 11, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hudson Overpass | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | The Joke’s On You | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gongheifatchoy | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Talespin | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Principal Dancer | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Apex Predator | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Freudian Analyst | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Well in Tune | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Majestic Affair | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | We Should Talk | 1.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gypsum Johnny | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Javelin | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bootlegger (FR) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Toohottoevenspeak | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seventyseven Stone | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Wild Cat West | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Call Me Later | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | War Stopper | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Matty’s Marauder | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | First Line | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Red Mercury | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Continuation | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | High School Crush | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jimmys Lass | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | City Temper | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Little Honey | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Luzmaria | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rebel Empress | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pretty Fabulous | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Eye’m Gone | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Over Thirsty | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Our Stormin Norman | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Split Verdict | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Quest for Fire | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sobersick N Sorry | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Bassman Dave | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Givetheman a Cigar | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | No More Miracles | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tizanoxbow | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bronxville | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Letzgometz | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Moonbounce | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Charge Ahead | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blindwillie McTell | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Shamrocked | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready to Escape | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cerretalto | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Scoreswhenhewants | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | American Rule | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Playwright | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tiergan | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Big Mountain | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whistling Birds | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ten Twenty Nine | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Command | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Centrist | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bebe Banker | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Thicket | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beach Access | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Say Florida Sandy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Morning Breez | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Celtic Chaos | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Caretaker | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aveenu Malcainu | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | T Loves a Fight | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Arthur’s Hope | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Boy Tate | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Love Me Tomorrow | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gipsey Sorceress | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | More Diamonds | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Maqua Dawn | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Menzamenz | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rewarded | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Barker Lane | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Bounty | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maybe a Rainbow | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Derby Doll | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.