January 30, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Aw Ite | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whacudposblygowrng | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gem of Carlos | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Broadway Jones | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gentleman Charlie | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bettin On Bryan | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Boss Man | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wind Zee | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oma Lee | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thinking of Her | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sandy’s Wager | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Interslew | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Half | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Honduras Girl | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Floatie | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Resilient Rick | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Victor Lounge (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Herecomesyourman | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Senor Blanco | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Overzealous | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blue Steel | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gustnado | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Briar Jumper | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Papillon | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fleetway | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Run Tappy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cape Angel | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sethamee Street | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Say Yes Again | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Polk | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bella Cajun | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snowball | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Crispy Creed | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Da Due Run Run | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Joyful Cat | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Zurlin | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Heavenly Sis | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Awesome One | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Golden Loch | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Every Single Day | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ekati Peace | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freshman Class | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Livy B | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bonbourbon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bold Rey | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sundereya | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | C Islandsurprise | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Take Charge Gal | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Katie the Cutie | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lady Blue | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yes I’m Evil | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baylor | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Now | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Lawton | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Don’task Don’ttell | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Duncastle | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | One Mean Man | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Irish Heatwave | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Afleet Ascent | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Vivid Verse | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Luna de Loco | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Roman Creed | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Overnight Success | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 11 | Omega Moon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Broken Key | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | True West | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Executive Bonus | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Honor Mission | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wildcard Prado | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bear Trappe | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Thunder Mesa | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smithwick | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Over Funded | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Little Toe | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cap Rock Miner | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Reigning Warrior | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Marquee Prince | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Pride | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Say the Word | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sonneteer | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zero Gravity | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ninety One Assault | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ezmosh | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honovi | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nice Not Nice | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stella’s Surprise | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Saints’ Girl | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jaded Rose | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Monarchos Prayer | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cherry Twist | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cohenscollegefund | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | D’freak Nasty | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Daylight Deelite | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carson’s Prospect | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.