February 28, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Spellbinding | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Star’s Dream | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hip Flask | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Foursweetnieces | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zydeco Music | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Custom Gulch | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Able Catch | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Richie Gary | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stuck in Vegas | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unrestricted | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Don Guillermo | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Guitar King | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Three Run Homer | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Confederate Yell | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Four Sevens | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Fist of Rage | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Social Misfit | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chop Chop Charlie | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Got Gold | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grand Marais | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Woman With a Book | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Magic Vow | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Cajun Pinata | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Tupelo Hon E | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Kaza | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Strict Vow | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Angel of Verdun | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Badgeri Candy | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Speed too Tume | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Sooner Girl | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Notorious Gal | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ballybrack Lass | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Red Hot Devil | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trinity N Roux | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Move It | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Archrival | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Magi | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Groom Lake | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Southern Light | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Suvorov’s Hero | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | A Song for Arch | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Asongforyou | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eden Grey’s Kitten | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Future Ruler | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Priority | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Queeten | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Overruling | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jake the Band Man | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kid Creole | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pay the Dream | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Scarlettsblackjack | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Temprano | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Play Unified | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Diamond Crazy | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr. Al’s Gal | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Saints N Muskets | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fugitive Lady | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | New Year’s Party | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Diamond Cutter | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Conquest Lemonraid | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Take That for Data | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kitten’s Boy | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hitch | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Believeinholidays | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tom Management | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rescind | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cade’s On the Bump | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Knight’s Cross | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | So Alive | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sir Advent | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Madelyn’s Wild Max | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Pal Torres | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spring Value | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Papa’s Big Boy | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | It’s Mike’s Turn | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blue Choice | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Christopher Cat | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.