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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 30, 2020

May 30, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Brittle and Yoo 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 6 Our Secret Agent 2.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Trapped N My Mind 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 5 Saintsation 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Dancewiththedevil 15.00 4.2 8-1
2 1 Hands Up 15.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Extra Effort 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Lady Cleopatra 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Operatic 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Fun Paddy 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Colorincolonel 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Sun Dress 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Absolute Love 12.00 5 10-1
6 6 Seeds of Time 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Mongolian Humor 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Elle M’a Souri (FR) 2.50 3 6-1
1 1 Bastet 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Messina 4.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Flying the Colors 5.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Daddymademedoit 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Heavenly Peace 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Pau Hana 10.00 6 11-1
11 11 Fashion Mo 10.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Malibu Marlee 15.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Mille Fleurs 20.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Tourist Like Me 30.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 Exceblades 30.00 10 19-1
13 13 Queen Medb (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Sharethegoodtimes 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Talking Book 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Lipstikliesnlovers 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Creekmore 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Arch Ability 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Its My Bag Baby 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Johnny Cab 3.50 3 6-1
7 7 Hidden Promise 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Improbable Story 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Albert’s Barn 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Digital Star 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Dontneedaname 4.00 2.9 5-1
12 11 Forbetterorworse 6.00 3.8 7-1
10 9 Why Why Paul Why 8.00 3.9 7-1
14 12 Natural History 12.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Chili Nelson 12.00 4.8 9-1
11 10 Suspect 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Magic Mo 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 Jerry’s Got Aces 10.00 6 11-1
9 8 Mr. Class 20.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Begin the Begin 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Time Heist 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 My Pal Dal 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Queen’s Mason 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Magic Sam 12.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Lover Boy 30.00 10.3 20-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Buy Me Candy 6.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Tabled 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Letmeno 5.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Tiesto 2.50 5.6 11-1
6 6 Noble Order 6.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Kid Mercury 12.00 7.7 15-1
12 12 Angelus Warrior 12.00 8 15-1
2A 2 Prefect 12.00 8.2 16-1
3 3 Jurgen 12.00 9.5 18-1
7 7 Czechmight 12.00 9.6 18-1
16 16 Strike Appeal 15.00 SCRATCH
19 19 Adhhar 4.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Violent Pass 4.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Man in the Can 3.00 SCRATCH
20A 20 Dack Janiel’s 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Pleasecallmeback 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sharecropper 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Moon Over Miami 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Spanish Kingdom 20.00 11.3 21-1
4 4 Strong Tide 30.00 12.9 24-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Winning Colors S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mia Mischief 1.60 3.1 6-1
7 7 Spiced Perfection 3.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Sneaking Out 12.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Break Even 1.80 3.8 7-1
4 4 Bell’s the One 15.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Princess Causeway 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Take Charge Angel 20.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Unique Factor 30.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Lady Suebee 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Ashiham 1.60 3.4 6-1
7 6 Bear Alley 3.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Mau Mau 10.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Aztec Empire 8.00 5.1 10-1
12 11 Bakers Bay 12.00 5.5 10-1
11 10 Militarist 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 7 Oceanic 15.00 6.5 12-1
10 9 Mud Pie 12.00 7 13-1
6 5 What a Country 10.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Tiz the Journey 20.00 7.7 15-1
5 4 Dreams of Yvonne 30.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 Fifty Grand 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mine That Star 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Barbaroni 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tonaltalitarian 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 All About Will 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 10 Dixieincandyland 4.50 3.5 7-1
14 12 Hidden Facts 4.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Bingwa 3.00 3.7 7-1
11 9 Whimsical Muse 10.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Unaquoi 8.00 5.1 10-1
9 8 Cardamon 8.00 5.1 10-1
13 11 Even Beat 10.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Originator 3.50 6.1 12-1
6 5 I’llhandalthecash 10.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Dance Rhythms 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Fame Feather 15.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Baroness Vontrappe 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Queen of Shades 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 She’s All Skeet 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Holiday Time 15.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Vomba 4.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Tia Flor 50.00 11.8 22-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Plus Que Parfait 6.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Gun It 3.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Top Seed 3.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Fearless 2.00 5 9-1
2 2 Seek the Peak 20.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Kaziranga 15.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Lone Rock 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Tiz Mischief 20.00 6 11-1
3 3 Twelfth Labour 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Thirstforlife 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Full of Run 30.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Old Forester Mint Julep S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Beau Recall (IRE) 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Altea (FR) 12.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 La Signare (FR) 20.00 4 8-1
6 6 Nay Lady Nay (IRE) 4.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Secret Message 8.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) 2.50 4.7 9-1
9 9 Varenka 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Hanalei Moon 20.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Winning Envelope 20.00 5.3 10-1
14 14 Mitchell Road 10.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 She’sonthewarpath 20.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Zofelle (IRE) 20.00 6.8 13-1
13 13 Elizabeth Way (IRE) 20.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Coco Channel 50.00 8.4 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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