September 4, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Come On Dover | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | High Hero | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Whacudposblygowrng | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Homer | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tres Generaciones | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speared | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | She’s Honorable | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nic and Zoe | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | April’s Gem | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moonlight Dancing | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sense of Self | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zappi | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lascari (GB) | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | No Quarter | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Savage | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charliecando | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | King Snake | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Land Mark Deal | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coco Bravado | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Pal Jac | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Kennesaw | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Verrazanointhesky | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Payster | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Javanica | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Clarestown | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spend Benjamins | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Simple Logic | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jeggyjeggy | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Yaba Daba Doo | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ferlin Husky | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Two Pair | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kyzan | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | French Minded | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Barnyard Fiddler | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Offlee Fun | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dom the Bomb | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Battle N Away | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tuff Attack | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miracle Mountain | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Overpraise | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Contraction | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Little Snip | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Intent | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Donivan My Boy | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beast Mode | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tak | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lawlessness | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Notable Exception | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kamara Vision | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wine Cellar | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frank the Tank | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Ballet Show | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Run Rabbit | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Duckdevil | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Lemon Drop Twist | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lapis Storm | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Macbu | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lillet | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Field Letters | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stormy Empire | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky At Justice | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | B N a Native Girl | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.