September 7, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Handicap)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Iranistan | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Noah And The Ark (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bodes Well (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New Member (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Maccabee | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Go Get the Basil | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cracker Factory (GB) | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Show Court (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mutasaawy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 2 | The Caretaker | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Celtic Chaos | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Worth | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Manifest Destiny | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | High Command | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Build to Suit | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Editor At Large (IRE) | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Domain Expertise | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ready Seeker | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blue Kentucky Girl | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Serene | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dollar Mountain | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mrs. O’Connell | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Morgantown | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Threatlevelmidnite (GB) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Rightdowngentlemen | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kabob | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Revenio | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Larceny | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Road to Meath | 0.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dull Knife | 12.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Liam’s Fire | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dublin Green | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | King of American | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Per Capita | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Candy Tycoon | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hunt the Front | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heirloom Kitten | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Walkoff | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Yankee Division | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grit and Glory | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Topper T | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Life in Shambles | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Aristocratic | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Clench | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2B | 7 | Wegotoldyougotsold | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Shamrocked | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Flowers for Lisa | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hawaiian Noises | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Chateau | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 8 | Win With Pride | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Army Wife | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Julie Bird (IRE) | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Freedomofthepress | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mrs Frankel (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No Ordinary Time | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Little Minx | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lovestruck | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tistaahal | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bertrada | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Lure S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Devamani (FR) | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Olympico (FR) | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Breaking the Rules | 1.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Largent | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ballagh Rocks | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rose’s Vision | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Speaker’s Corner | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Savoy | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Outlier | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Team Merchants | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Demon | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ten for Ten | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Happy Rage | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | American Gentleman | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Four Wheeler | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greatheart | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cucina | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ima Pharoah | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tikhvin Flew | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | The Big S | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maximiliano | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dudley Square | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chase Tracker | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ink Splotz | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Binkster | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mystery Bank | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hardredcandy | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Scanno | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Kringle | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Alley Oop Johnny | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quarterback Dak | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Banker | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Elusive Ruler | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bail Out | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Freedom and Whisky | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | No Lime | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Succeedandsurpass (IRE) | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gauguin (GER) | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Myamanoi | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Proven Strategies | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lonesome Fugitive (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Basquiat | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bray | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Great Dansky | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | African Heritage | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ever Dangerous | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Speightful Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Runhappy Hopeful S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Reinvestment Risk | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mutasaabeq | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jackie’s Warrior | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Papetu | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ampersand | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fearless Fly | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nutsie | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Mohjestic | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Stare Decisis | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Seize the Hay | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Vicarage | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bold Gem | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Tri Saint Lorenzo | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Kickin’ Kirby | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sir Chubby | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Inappropriate | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Ned | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | John Want Revenge | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Parson | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Gunman | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Anzio Beach | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.