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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 14, 2020

October 14, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Icatiro 1.40 2.4 5-1
6 6 Zaevion 1.80 2.7 5-1
4 4 Oro de Tejano 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Light of the World 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Bourbon Native 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Exciting 10.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Lady McKenzie 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Panterita 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Spartanka 4.00 3 6-1
6 5 Double Oaked 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Folly 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Free 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Dreamonmebaby 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Feisty Bird 3.00 2.8 5-1
9 6 Can Imagine 5.00 3.5 7-1
10 7 Smart Call 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Winging Ways 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 5 Samson Lee 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Gran Rojo 20.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Ahmas 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Perfect Sense 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fixico 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Glamour Girl 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Ria Munk 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Market Rumor 1.40 3.3 6-1
3 3 Eres Tu 3.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Storm At Sea 12.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Sally O’Brien 12.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Santa Guapa 2.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Take Charge Ro 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Rearrange 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Princesa Blanca 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Palamos (GB) 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Demora 10.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Queen Louise 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 Pretty Plum 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 She’s a Deal 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Stripping 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Movie Moxy 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Dovima 2.50 2.7 5-1
12 11 Ballot Initiative 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Motown Girl 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 April in Paris 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Fast Chica 15.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Chewy Chewy Good 12.00 7.3 14-1
15 12 Honorable Memory 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Here Comes Josie 15.00 8.4 16-1
11 10 Dawdle 12.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Innovate 15.00 9.5 18-1
10 10 Morgan 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Atlanta 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Whispering Pines 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Runaway Mom 20.00 11.5 22-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Charming Lady 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 6 Call On Mischief 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 2 Ceci Valentina 4.50 3 6-1
4 3 Lexi On the Move 3.50 3 6-1
8 7 Purrfectly Claire 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 5 Recoded 8.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Regal Beauty 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 1 Rising Seas 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Steph’sfullasugar 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Continental Clash 6.00 2.9 6-1
9 8 Dyess 6.00 3 6-1
6 5 Champers 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Oak Room 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 First Citizen 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Monte Ne 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 2 Dublin Yinz Money 10.00 5.4 10-1
2 1 Trumpin On 20.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Rocka Barry 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 No Nay Now (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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