December 18, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Doctor K | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sinashack | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stimulus Maker | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Excellorator | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Risky Woods | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kentucky Knight | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rocco Strong | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Production Credit | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Centavo | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Magnetique | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tuff Bird | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Girardi | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Secret Zar | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Princess Pinky | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | More Mango | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Al’s Gal | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gone Glimmering | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sadie Lady | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Call On Mischief | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Circle of Love | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maryanorginger | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gypsy Janie | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cindervella | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lovely Lady Lexi | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Whyisshesoolucky | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Beyond Discreet | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sister Alexa | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dublinornothin | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Persian Queen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mills | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Playwright | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bozzini | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Other Things Equal | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Scarf It Down | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frankie Barone | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Real Dan | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Autostrade | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hero’s Hope | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Successful Saint | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Beautiful Karen | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Equant | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | I’m Fine | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Munnings Muse | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moon Sweeper | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bella Domenica | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Masterof the Tunes | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Calidad | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Steppin’ Hawk | 50.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shandian | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Macho Boy | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Coolboy | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cohiba Ghost | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ink Splotz | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Principal Dancer | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pinky Dude | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I Saw It All | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Charge Ahead | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Mr. Fidget | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pricing Exercise | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Our American Star | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ridolfo | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Royal Suspect | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Maiden Beauty | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Am Impazible | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Customerexperience | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | South of the Shore | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Quiet Dignity | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11A | 8 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Break Curfew | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I Dare U | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sky Kitten | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Wicked Amber | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Pat’s No Fool | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nicky the Vest | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Full Moon Fever | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Blurt | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ruse | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brew Pub | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tanners Neck Lane | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Skippingandajumpin | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tales of Saratoga | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pollard’s Day | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Celtic Heart | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Judge Bern | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hold the Irish | 50.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.