February 14, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | A Vow of Beauty | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Mighty Wind | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Reticent | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Whichwaytomalibu | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ringgood | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Devilish Mood | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Starship Empire | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Talespin | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ratchet | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cause of Action | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Winning Drive | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ryan’s Cat | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honorable Service | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fox Red | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cavaradossi | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Batterbatterswing | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Duckphat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Irresistible Girl | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vallarand | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Esotica | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jill’s a Hot Mess | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Destinationwnrscir | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Epona’s Dream | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Foley Square | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mosienko | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Gentle Annie | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Appletini | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dashi | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Mia | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Happy Sophia | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mo Zone | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ekhtibaar | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hammerin Aamer | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Celtic Treasure | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Frankie Barone | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Shortandsimple | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Real Dan | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Vive La Liberty | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tremayne | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | Rosey’s Peach | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Papi’s Baby Girl | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Captivating Cara | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Eilish | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bley | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fortune’s Sister | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frosted Bourbon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Winter Warrior | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Charlie Five O | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Taino | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Writer’s Regret | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conformist | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Doctor K | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Meetmeincali | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Heart Rhythm | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Gander S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Nicky the Vest | 1.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lobsta | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uno | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Munnings | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dancing Buck | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Horn of Plenty | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Re Created | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Betsy Blue | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Big Tony’s Girl | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flirtacious Kiss | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Honor | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Delaware Destiny | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bustin Bay | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Willow Grove | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Harlem Dancer | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Priestess | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Madame Rose | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.