February 20, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | B C Glory Days | 0.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Judge Bern | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | What’s My Category | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vodka Lemonade | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tales of Saratoga | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Tapizearance | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5B | 5 | Macho Jack | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dr. Devera’s Way | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beach Front | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Truebelieve | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Bend in the River | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Economic Policy | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7B | 7 | Cobble Hill | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Earned Success | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seethisquick | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Releasethethunder | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dirty | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Professor Snape | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kampai | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Brilliant Brooks | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Bobby | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jake Rocks | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Siena Magic | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Big S | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | David’s Gem | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lemon Drop Road | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Will E Sutton | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I Am the Law | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Frosted Indian | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Exalted Charm | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Good Culture | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sono Grato | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Run Smitty Run | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 3 | Supreme Aura | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Dude | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Heirloom Kitten | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Laddie Liam | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Runabout | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | American Lincoln | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tale of Silence | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | Its All Relevant | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Wailin Josie | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Eloquent Speaker | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | More Glitter | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ifihadachance | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Shesasuperfreak | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quietude | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flush | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Anydayisherday | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Maddie May S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Brattle House | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Make Mischief | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vacay | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frost Me | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Secret Love | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shanes Pretty Lady | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Irish Constitution | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Teetotaler | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Cara’s Dreamer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Warfront Fighter | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scorpion Dynasty | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kith | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ouch Ouch Ouch | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Confectioner | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dutchmen Forever | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maclean’s Legacy | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wisecrack | 30.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.