February 20, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | Ready for Change | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lady Anna | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Much About It | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Sikum | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Seven Jewels | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emmport | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cobra Casablanca | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Yes to Mischief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Savvy Ally | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Lea’s Princess | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Wrath | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Laddie Boy | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Run Tappy | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lead Star | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thetrashmanscoming | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Good Intent | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Go for Moonshine | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Over Funded | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pops Legacy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Matt’s Honey | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Desha | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All Fact | 0.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Glance | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Yes I’m Evil | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mila’s Dream (IRE) | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Moira | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marrazano | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Brookside | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Havinfunyet | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Bassett | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Theos Flew | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starvictory | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sneaky Allie Kat | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Truth Teller | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Yankee Clipper | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Joeboy | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wheels Turning | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bigboyshowshart | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tensas Gold | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tencentsuperhoop | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mucho Macho | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Flags Up | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Copa | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gold Incense | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pilot Prince | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Filippo | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Saint Goar | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | River’s Raging | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Charge the Line | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Bella Brown | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My Wise Cat | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Win Ya Win | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | State Treasurer | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bistraya | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bibleman | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | C’Mon Ve | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Double Barrel Man | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Tiger Blood | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Seven Scents | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Star of Kodiak | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Steadytillready | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Hokie | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lost in Limbo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Wile E Peyote | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Oak Hill | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Readyforprimetime | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Olliemyboy | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cowboy Diplomacy | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Plus Que Parfait | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Locally Owned | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pit Boss | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crypto Cash | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Beautiful Wall | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Broth | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Natalie Would | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Shockingly | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ursulina | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Santa Rita | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Quality of Mercy | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arbitrary | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Glitterary | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sparkle of Hope | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coeur | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fortheloveoflydia | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mary of Bethany | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Differentbutok | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sneaky | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hoodwink | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Paytonsattheplate | 20.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | No Pedigree | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ranch Badge | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fifty Protection | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gypsy’s Soulmate | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Coffee County | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gimmeasound | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bunkie’s Song | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Big Merrill | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Coach Kenny | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jays Riverwrangler | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Joe Diver | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.