February 21, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Day’s Humor | 1.20 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trick the Universe | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mill Stone Creek | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mia Calia | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lovelee Honor | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crystal Steps | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Storm Shooter | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Market Alert | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Horn of Plenty | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The King Cheek | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Halpert | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Patty O’Marc | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Humpday | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bedazzling | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Another Shot | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eight Weeks Long | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | You’ve Got Male | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tapitena | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bellamy Dolce | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | No Lime | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vitesse | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Icy Dude | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Blood Moon | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mine the Coin | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Classy Papa | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Smile Bryan | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Alongcametheprince | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Orazio | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Runningwscissors | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gozilla | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | O’Trouble | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rejected Again | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Abuelo Paps | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Manolito | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Saucy Cat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Becca’s Wish | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cause to Dream | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Despeight All Odds | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maracuja | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Up Seventyfour | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mun Luv | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Bad Guy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Dust Devil | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | Tiergan | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Perceived | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Miami Mumbles | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Advance Notice | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Time to Testify | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | This Ill Defend | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rhythm Section | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Great Dansky | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Family Biz | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Obsessed | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Star | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Doubly Blessed | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Daddy Knows | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | El Hermano | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lost in Rome | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frosted Ice | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | I Love Jaxson | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Heavy Roller | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grit and Glory | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Its All Relevant | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chief Know It All | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dynamax Prime | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hawaiian Noises | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swiping Dan | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Real Dan | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.